858 FXUS63 KIND 260706 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 306 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2020 .UPDATE... The LONG TERM Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 307 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2020 A couple of low pressure system will bring rain to the area over the next week. Current showers across the area will last into tomorrow followed by more chances of rain from Monday night through Thursday. Otherwise, there are a couple days of dry weather in between. && .NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/... Issued at 939 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Showers continue to rotate around an upper low/vort max in the southwestern forecast area this evening. Central parts of the forecast area have lower coverage of showers than most of the rest of the area. Near the low, slow moving heavier showers were persistent. Adjusted current PoPs to reflect radar trends. As the upper low meanders south and east overnight, some of the more widespread rain to the north will fill in the areas with lower coverage at the moment. Reflected this in the PoP forecast. Earlier there were isolated lightning strikes near the upper low, but these have diminished with loss of heating. Thus have no mention of thunder. Will continue to watch the area of heavier rain for any need for a short term flood advisory. Otherwise forecast is on track and just tweaked hourly forecasts as needed. Previous discussion follows... Rain has moved into the southwestern half of the forecast area and will continue moving north. A low pressure system is tracking across southern Indiana, which is bringing the rain... a dry slot of easterly air caused a delay in the rain across central Indiana but that dry slow is now being pushed further north. A few rumbles of thunder are possible this afternoon in our southern counties, where the slightly more unstable air resides. The rain will last throughout the night. Winds will also pick up overnight, possibly gusting to 25 kts, thanks to a low level jet forming on the back side of the low. && .SHORT TERM /Tomorrow through Tuesday/... Issued at 307 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2020 A slow moving low pressure system will continue rain and winds gusting to 30 kts throughout the day Sunday. Rain is expected to move off to the east by mid day but the breezy winds will likely last until sunset. Brief ridging behind the low should keep things dry across the area into Monday and will also lead to clear skies Sunday night, allowing the temperatures to likely drop into the mid 30s. Monday night then has a slight chance of rain with a low level short moving through. Another low pressure system will shortly follow behind bring a better chance of rain and thunder starting Tuesday and lasting into the long term period. Tomorrow will be slightly cooler behind the front, but temperatures will return back to near normal temperatures by the end of the short term. && .LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/... Issued at 305 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2020 Precipitation will be ongoing throughout Wednesday, as a low pressure system progresses through Indiana. Current guidance depicts a closed upper-level low slowly moving through the northern Great Lakes region through Thursday morning. A NW to SE oriented jet will be supplying the energetics for this low, but a ridge over the Appalachia region will slow progression, prolonging chances of rain for the middle of next week. Thunderstorms are a possibility on Wednesday; however, current timing of greatest wind shear and lapse rates do not align with typical peak daytime heating and instability. By Wednesday night, models show cold air wrapping around the low, cutting off moisture return for Thursday. Rain rates Thursday should decrease, with precipitation ending during the day. An upper-level ridge will build in following the passage of the low, reducing rain potential for the end of the week. Surface winds will increase Wednesday as the low approaches the region. Sustained winds around 15 mph with gust above 30mph are possible. High temperatures are expected to stay north of 60, with Thursday as the lone exception. Clearing skies and a slight shift in the upper-level flow should allow for an increase in temperatures late in the week. Current forecasted highs for Saturday are in the low 70s. && .AVIATION (Discussion for the 260600Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 1132 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Mainly MVFR conditions expected into the daylight morning hours of Sunday, then improvement to VFR. Gusty winds will be common overnight through the daytime Sunday. Rain will spread back south overnight then diminish during the day Sunday from north to south. Ceilings will be mainly MVFR but could bounce around. Kept it simple with just MVFR overnight. Conditions will improve to VFR again during the day Sunday. Winds will frequently gust overnight through the day Sunday, with gusts over 30kt possible Sunday. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KH NEAR TERM...KH/50 SHORT TERM...KH LONG TERM....Updike AVIATION...50