520 FXUS64 KJAN 242110 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 410 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2020 .DISCUSSION... Tonight and Saturday: mid afternoon water vapor imagery/RAP analysis had a shortwave trough moving east over the Central Plains. Mid afternoon surface analysis had a weak 1012mb north-south oriented surface ridge across our CWA and an 1006mb surface low over the Southern Plains. The shortwave trough will continue tracking east tonight and close off a low by morning as it moves from the mid Mississippi Valley to the Tennessee Valley. The surface low over will track east as well and drag a cold front across our CWA Saturday. Our airmass was rather dry this morning with a PWAT just over a half inch. Our surface dew points were running in the 50s this afternoon. Moisture will try to increase this evening ahead of the approaching shortwave and associated cold front. A pool of lower 60 dew points and PWATs to an inch and a quarter is expected in our western zones prior to midnight. The wind field will strengthen this evening as well while instability will gradually wain. There appears to be a window of opportunity late this evening into early Saturday where isolated severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds will be possible. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out. This threat area essentially remains unchanged from last night's thinking and is mainly over our northwest. The chance for rain south of Interstate 20 will be brief tonight and end well before sunrise. Rain chances in the northeast however, look to continue until noon as the upper level closed low is a little slow to lift out. Gradient wind out of the southwest to west is expected to result in breezy conditions over the northern half of the area Saturday as well. In the wake of the cold front, drier air will move in and temperatures will be cooler than normal in the north but slightly warmer than normal in the south. /22/ Saturday night through next week... Expect dry conditions through Monday night as high pressure settles in across the region. Highs Sunday will be in the 70s for most locations, with some lower 80s across the south by Monday. Lows Saturday night look to be in the 50s for most locations, with some 40s possible Sunday night for portions of the east. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return Tuesday as the next frontal system approaches the region. We are still too far out at this point to speculate on any particular severe weather threats that this system may bring to the ArkLaMiss, but this will need to be monitored over the next few days as confidence is increasing for the potential for severe weather. Precip will be moving out of the area during the day Wednesday into the evening as the front moves through. Expect dry conditions Thursday through the remainder of the week as high pressure returns. /27/ && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF discussion: VFR conditions were observed areawide at 1730Z. VFR conditions wl continue through 03Z Saturday. After 03Z Sat scattered SHRA/TSRA will be possible through 09Z across the HWY 82 corridor as a disturbance moves across the region. A brief reduction in flying conditions will be likely with any TSRA but a period of MVFR cigs are expected 10-16Z at GLH-GWO-GTR. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will continue through Saturday. Also Saturday, gusty sw-w wind will develop with gusts of 20-24kts during the day. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 62 76 53 74 / 28 2 3 0 Meridian 58 79 53 75 / 12 5 5 0 Vicksburg 60 76 54 75 / 40 2 2 0 Hattiesburg 61 82 56 77 / 3 6 6 0 Natchez 60 77 54 75 / 30 4 4 0 Greenville 59 72 53 72 / 76 11 1 0 Greenwood 60 72 52 71 / 78 21 2 1 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$