603 FXUS63 KIND 241659 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1259 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2020 .UPDATE... The AVIATION Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 345 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2020 After some patchy morning fog, high pressure will provide dry weather with seasonable temperatures today. After that a pair of low pressure systems will bring rain to the area this weekend and again next week. && .NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/... Issued at 913 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2020 Dry conditions are expected for today with partly cloudy skies for much of the afternoon. The early morning fog has mostly dissipated with any ongoing fog expected to be gone within the next hour. Low stratus clouds will gradually burn off over the course of the rest of the morning but may lead to temperatures being a degree or 2 lower than initially forecast. Thus, dropped highs a bit in the western counties where clouds were the thickest. Otherwise, no major changes needed to ongoing forecast. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday night/... Issued at 345 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2020 Models in agreement that rain will move in from the west tonight and overspread central Indiana on Saturday before moving out late Sunday as a low pressure system moves across the Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and finally the Appalachians this weekend. In addition to deep moisture combined with synoptic forcing, coupled jets over the southeastern states and Great Lakes will aid in rainfall potential Saturday into Saturday evening. Some areas could see more than an inch total rainfall through the weekend. With little breaks in the cloud cover and widespread rain, temperatures will not be able to reach normal this weekend with highs in the 50s and lower 60s expected per the blend. && .LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/... Issued at 323 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2020 Pressure will increase at the surface in the wake this weekend's low pressure system. This will bring drier conditions and seasonal temperatures to start the work week. By Tuesday morning, winds will shift to the SW allowing for some moisture return and an increase in precipitation chances. Upper-level support looks fairly weak in the beginning, but periods of brief showers Tuesday afternoon cannot be ruled out given moderate surface moisture. Rain chances will increase even further Tuesday night, associated with an approaching wave. Current guidance depicts a closed low over the northern Great Lakes Tuesday night through Thursday morning. The lack of continuous vorticity advection, typically found in closed lows, will limit the system's progression, prolonging chances of rain. This, along with the placement of the low north of Indiana, will allow for a warmer, moist regime over the region throughout the middle of next week. Expect multiple rounds of rain Tuesday night through Wednesday night, with the greatest chances for rain across all of central Indiana on Tuesday night. By the end of Thursday, conditions should start to dry underneath a broad upper- level ridge. High temperatures through all of next week are expected to stay north of 60, with upper 60s possible on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /Discussion for 241800Z TAF Issuance/... Issued at 1259 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2020 VFR conditions largely expected through early Saturday afternoon. The lower stratus has mixed out over all but the northern Wabash Valley and even here that should take place within the next hour or two. Diurnal cu has developed rather quickly since late morning and will be over the region through the rest of the day. While some MVFR ceilings linger...should see cloud bases eventually lift up to 4-5kft by later this afternoon. Expect light and variable winds into this evening. Clouds will again increase in coverage tonight as an upper wave and associated surface low track into the Ozarks. Recent model trends suggesting that a predominant low level easterly flow developing late tonight will keep the boundary layer dry over much of the region through midday Saturday and perhaps minimize rainfall coverage and intensity until the afternoon. Have adjusted TAFs accordingly with KLAF as the only location that may see restrictions develop within showers prior to 18Z Saturday. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MK NEAR TERM...White SHORT TERM...MK LONG TERM....Updike AVIATION...Ryan