401 FXUS63 KDDC 212305 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 605 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 314 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020 An area of rain showers this afternoon has pushed the effective frontal boundary southward into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, precluding severe weather during the afternoon and early evening with this first shortwave trough passage. Elevated convection above the low level cold pool is expected to develop in eastern Colorado and move across SW Kansas this evening. A stronger shortwave trough will approach later tonight, with elevated CAPE developing across our southern row of counties from Hugoton to Coldwater. A few storms will develop above the low level inversion and produce hail as large as half dollars. Due to the temperature inversion, damaging winds are not likely. Locally heavy rain is expected across parts of southwestern Kansas tonight. Current thinking is that the heaviest will be south of a line from Sublette to Dodge City to Pratt. Areas that experience more than one bout of heavy rain could receive two or more inches of rain. There is still some doubt about exactly where the heaviest rain will be. As we always see every spring and summer, the areas that receive the heaviest rain can be confined to certain sections of the counties, with much less in other sections; and these details can't be nailed down with a high degree of certainty well in advance. Less amounts of rain are expected well north of the front from Hays to Scott City. Lows tonight will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s from northwest to southeast. Highs Wednesday will be held down in the lower to mid 60s by cloud cover and precipitation in south central Kansas. Some sun later in the day will propel temperatures into the upper 60s to lower 70s along a line from Syracuse to Wakeeney. Showers and thunderstorms will linger through midday and then slowly taper off from west to east in the afternoon as the upper level system passes into central and eastern Kansas. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 314 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020 Northwesterly mid to high level flow will develop across the plains by Thursday, with ridging over the western United States. Temperatures will warm well into the 70s and near 80 on Thursday ahead of a NW flow disturbance. Behind the front, highs will drop into the 60s to lower 70s for Friday and Saturday. There is only small chance of showers and thunderstorms from Thursday night into early Friday (especially over south central Kansas) as an upper level disturbance and cold front approach. These are not expected to be severe. Dry northwesterly mid to high level flow will prevail through the end of April. There could be a couple of limited opportunities for showers and thunderstorms ahead of any weak impulse in the flow, but best chances may be confined to the better low level moisture across south central Kansas. Otherwise expect mainly dry and mild weather with highs mainly in the 70s, with some lower 80s as well on the days with downslope. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 538 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020 Widespread rain showers across parts of Southwest Kansas in the vicinity of LBL, GCK, and DDC. Current VFR conditions with mid level ceilings around 6-8kft due to the influx of low to mid level moisture with the upslope southeast flow seeing winds around 10-15kts. Thunderstorms will push out of the Oklahoma Panhandle after 03Z affecting the LBL site seeing MVFR ceilings and lowering visibility associated with the stronger storms. These same storms will affect GCK and DDC after 06Z, and HYS after 09Z. Ongoing sporadic storms through early morning pushing east of the TAF sites after 18-19Z with lingering MVFR ceilings in the wake of the upper level disturbance. Severe weather will stay south of the viewing area during this timeframe. After 21-23Z, ceilings will begin to scatter out as high pressure builds into the region with winds turning out of the north around 12-15kts in the aforementioned disturbance pushing eastward. Winds will continue to diminish and skies clear after the end of the TAF period and into the overnight hours through Thursday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 51 66 44 77 / 80 70 0 10 GCK 49 69 42 76 / 80 60 0 0 EHA 48 69 43 77 / 80 60 0 0 LBL 50 67 43 77 / 90 70 0 0 HYS 50 67 44 77 / 60 60 0 10 P28 54 63 47 79 / 90 90 10 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Finch LONG TERM...Finch AVIATION...Lowe