297 
FXUS64 KLCH 211421
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
921 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020

.UPDATE...
High pressure nearly overhead this morning is yielding light winds
and mostly clear skies across the region with the exception of a
few bands of high clouds noted over southeast Texas and parts of
Rapides parish. The current forecast is in good shape and no
changes were made.

Jones

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 611 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020/ 

AVIATION...Patchy fog will remain around the area through 14z
occasionally affecting some terminals, however the period is
expected to be mostly VFR. Lower ceilings may also develop toward
sunrise Wednesday. Winds will be light and range from east to
southeast.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 528 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020/ 

DISCUSSION...
Generally quiet across the forecast area early this morning
underneath high cirrus passing overhead, though there is a bit of
patchy fog out there to contend with. Do not expect at this time
that it will become widespread and/or dense as to warrant an
advisory, so maintained the patchy verbiage already in the 
forecast with a few minor adjustments. Benign forecast is on tap
for today as SFC high pressure gradually shifts off to the east
and flat mid level ridging passes overhead, yielding a mix of
clouds and sun with afternoon temperatures topping out in the
lower/mid 80s.

By tonight, upstream shortwave trof currently over the Desert SW
will be emerging east of the Four Corners, with a
developing/deepening SFC low entering the TX panhandle.
Downstream, strengthening southerly flow and resultant WAA regime
will have the effect of boosting low temperatures, though the
initial MSTR return will be rather muted owing to the swath of
relatively drier air left across the northern Gulf by the previous
system. That will change quickly through the day on WED, however,
as models continue to prog a near 2" PWAT airmass spreading into
the area by the afternoon. As the upper trof and associated SFC
low continue EWD across N TX and OK, increasing lift and
instability will promote scattered to perhaps numerous showers and
thunderstorms, some of which will be capable of becoming severe
given strong deep layer shear. TSTMS will continue into the
evening and through the overnight, progressing EWD ahead of a
dryline trailing the SFC low, with this feature expected to be
departing the area by THU morning. All modes of severe are
possible, with SPC outlining areas along/N of I-10 in a SLGT risk
with a marginal risk to the coast. Given the very high atmospheric
MSTR content, locally HVY rainfall is also possible, and WPC
maintains a SLGT risk of excessive rainfall over areas roughly
along/N of the HWY 190 corridor. 

While most of the activity should be over with by early THU 
morning, small rain chances will continue mainly across parts of
LA until the lagging SFC front departs by the afternoon. Quiet 
weather will prevail in the wake of this system on FRI, with 
global models advertising another (mostly dry) front crossing the
area FRI night, with dry high pressure prevailing for the weekend. 

13

MARINE...
Light east to southeast winds will prevail today, becoming more
modest tonight as high pressure departs to the east and an area
of low pressure develops over the Texas panhandle. This onshore
flow will strengthen further Wednesday and Wednesday night as this
low tracks east across the Southern Plains. Small craft advisories
and/or exercise caution headlines may be needed Wednesday through
Wednesday night. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms 
are expected during this time period. A trailing surface front 
will sweep through the coastal waters Thursday morning, ending 
rains from west to east and bringing another brief period of 
offshore flow Thursday night. South winds return Friday, but 
become northerly behind another front expected to push through the
area Friday night.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  82  61  80  67 /  10   0  80 100 
LCH  84  66  81  71 /   0   0  60  80 
LFT  85  65  82  72 /   0   0  50  80 
BPT  82  68  79  71 /   0   0  50  70 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...66