978 FXUS62 KFFC 162342 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 742 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2020 ...00Z Aviation Discussion... .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 354 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2020/ SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/... Benign ridge dominated period continues thru Friday, then main focus is on a relatively weak upper wave and attendant cold front Friday night into Saturday. Models a limited in instability for much of this feature so have shower mention Friday night with increasing chance pops. QPF also looks light staying mainly under a quarter inch across the majority of the CWA. For temps expect below normal overnight mins in the 40s for most areas given expected strong radiational cooling with mostly clear skies and lax in winds. Highs Friday should moderate warmer into the mid 70s for most locations. Baker LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/... While a cold front and some increased instability allows for mainly a slight chance of thunderstorms across central Georgia for Saturday afternoon, the bigger concern is on the severe potential with a decent upper shortwave and associated sfc low progged to track across the SE CONUS late Sunday into Monday. Thinking the main period for any strong to severe storms will be Sunday night and for now looks to focus across central GA. The shear/instability parameters are suggesting a convective mode of possible MCS/QLCS with main threats of damaging winds or brief tornadoes. SPC has included the majority of the CWA in a 15 percent outlook for Day 4 and west central GA in a notable 30 percent outlook, so will definitely be honing in on the potential threats with subsequent forecasts to fine tune details. QPF continues to trend higher than previous for this system along with high PWATs greater than 1.5 inches, so looking like a good 2-2.5 inches across the southern majority and locally upwards of 3 inches in parts of central GA. Another possibly more potent wave is progged to swing thru the area on Thursday though still some timing/intensity discrepancies so have plenty of time to watch this potential system. We are indeed in that active Spring period. Temps overall look to be close to climo norms with some slight differences over the period given aforementioned disturbances/fronts. Baker && .AVIATION... 00Z Update... VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Winds will be light overnight and should begin shifting to the SE over the next several hours. After 12Z Fri morning, upper-level clouds will begin moving in and winds pick up to 7-12 kts and shift from the SSE to the SSW through the afternoon with FEW040 possible in the afternoon as well. After 00Z tomorrow, CIGS will rapidly begin descending with MVFR possible after 06Z. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... Medium on winds through 12Z. High on all other elements. Thiem && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 44 75 56 77 / 0 0 30 30 Atlanta 49 74 59 73 / 0 0 30 30 Blairsville 40 69 51 66 / 0 0 40 40 Cartersville 43 75 54 71 / 0 0 40 30 Columbus 50 78 60 81 / 0 0 30 30 Gainesville 46 71 56 72 / 0 0 30 30 Macon 44 77 57 80 / 0 0 30 40 Rome 42 75 52 71 / 0 0 40 30 Peachtree City 41 76 55 76 / 0 0 30 30 Vidalia 51 78 62 82 / 0 5 20 40 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Thiem LONG TERM....Baker AVIATION...Thiem