792 
FXUS64 KLUB 162320
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
620 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2020

.AVIATION...
Strong cold front will be moving through the South Plains area a
bit after midnight tonight switching winds to the north. Some
post-frontal stratus seems likely but with ceilings at or above
4000 ft AGL expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 226 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2020/ 

SHORT TERM...
Mostly zonal flow aloft continues across the southern portion of 
the CONUS this afternoon. Breezy southerly surface winds for the 
remainder of this afternoon will persist through the evening hours 
out ahead of an advancing cold front, that is currently in the far 
southern portions of Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle. The front 
will move through the southern Texas Panhandle after sunset tonight 
and be through the southern extent of our forecast area toward the 
I20 corridor a little after midnight. Wind speeds will remain 
elevated through the overnight hours behind the front, and should 
help keep temperatures from plummeting into the 20s, especially 
across our northern zones. The cold air will remain in place 
tomorrow, with highs dropping into the upper 50s and low 60s, 20 to 
25 degrees cooler than today.

LONG TERM...
Return flow will commence Friday night into Saturday as the cool 
surface ridging shifts eastward and troughing deepens in the lee
of the southern Rockies. The upper low still drifting southward 
off the California Coast will open and race this way, via the Four
Corners, on Saturday. The bulk of the energy with this 
deamplifying system will be directed to our north, but it will 
still cause a dryline to sharpen as it moves across the Caprock 
(and perhaps into the Rolling Plains) Saturday afternoon. In 
advance of this system, a bout of stratus is expected, and perhaps
even a chance of elevated convection across the Rolling Plains in
the morning. Later in the day, it appears the dryline will be 
capped from surface based convection, while gusty, warm and dry 
winds (and elevated fire weather) affect spots west of the 
dryline.

Weak surface ridging will follow the shortwave passage on Sunday, 
while another moisture-starved (and likely dry) mid-level 
disturbance races by. Low amplitude shortwave ridging early next 
week will then give way to a progressive trough or low 
Tuesday/Wednesday. Medium range NWP are still struggling on the 
details of how this wave will evolve, though current signals favor a 
passage in two distinct components. Regardless, an increase in winds 
and potentially elevated to critical fire weather look probable on 
the dry side of the system (west of the developing dryline), while 
at least low storm chances will be possible where moisture can be 
tapped (favoring eastern sections).  

Regarding temperatures, highs will rebound into the upper 60s to 
upper 70s on Saturday, climbing into the 70s to low 80s area-wide 
Sunday and Monday. Most locations will warm into the 80s on 
Tuesday before minor cooling with the passing troughiness mid- 
week. 

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

07