211 FXUS64 KLCH 151512 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1012 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2020 .UPDATE...The previous forecast remains on target and no changes are needed at this time. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 628 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2020/ DISCUSSION... 15/12Z TAF Issuance. AVIATION... VFR conditions to prevail with just FEW/SCT cirrus streaming over the region. Breezy NE winds will prevail this morning, sustained between 10-15 KT with gusts to around 20 KT at times at the southern terminals, with speeds/gusts slightly less at AEX. Winds will begin to taper off through the aftn as sfc high pres slides east acrs the area. 24 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 412 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2020/ SYNOPSIS... Cool and dry conditions will continue into tomorrow as a high pressure system builds into the region. Warm and muggy conditions with an unsettled weather pattern to return for the weekend. Will need to continue to monitor the situation for the weekend as expected strong winds aloft could provide enhanced storm activity. Rua DISCUSSION... A surface high centered over the Southern Plains will continue to build down into the forecast area today. This will provide northerly winds that will bring a dry continental air mass and thus cool conditions that will see afternoon highs and tonight's lows some 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal norms. The high pressure system will move off to the Mid-Atlantic by Friday and low level winds off the Gulf are expected to start on Thursday, that will begin a warming trend, along with higher humidity. A weak frontal system will try to move into the forecast area late Friday, and with it a few showers and storms, although atmosphere may be capped enough to keep activity at a minimum. Over the weekend, an active southern stream will push a series of upper level disturbances across, as well as a surface Pacific cold front. Airmass is expected to be warm and humid over the weekend, with abundant moisture pulled across by increasing southerly flow. PWAT values will be running over the seasonal 90th percentile value of 1.53 inches, and close to moving max values of 1.85 inches. Therefore, lift provided by short waves and the front should be able to work with the moisture to get some shower activity going, although timing differences in the guidance at that timeframe makes it tough to pinpoint when the best chances may be. Will have to monitor the situation over the weekend as strong southwest to west winds aloft will bisect the southerly low level jet to provide some good shear numbers. This could lead to some stronger type thunderstorms. However, once again potential capping and just how much low level instability can build up will be key. Rua MARINE... A cool high pressure system over the Southern Plains will build down into the coastal waters today. North to northeast winds are currently 20 to 25 knots over the near and outer waters. Therefore, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect. These winds will gradually decrease by afternoon as the high pressure system moves closer and settles over the region, with the Small Craft Advisory expiring in the early afternoon. The high pressure system will move off to the east by Thursday and be located off the Mid-Atlantic coast by Friday, and that will allow a modest onshore flow to develop, which will continue until a Pacific cold front moves across late Sunday. Rua && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 66 40 74 51 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 69 44 76 60 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 69 45 77 58 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 70 49 75 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ470- 472-475. Small Craft Exercise Caution until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ450-452-455. && $$ PUBLIC...05