527 FXUS66 KMFR 121746 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 945 AM PDT Sun Apr 12 2020 The Aviation section has been updated... .AVIATION...For the 12/18Z TAF Cycle... VFR conditions are expected to persist at all locations for the duration of this TAF period. Northwesterly winds are expected to get a bit gusty this afternoon and evening, but duration and magnitude are expected to be lesser than was observed Saturday afternoon and evening. Still, conditions are likely to be a bit bumpy in the afternoon and evening in the low levels, especially downwind/southeast of the mountain ranges. -BTL && .DISCUSSION... Some cirrus is moving south through the area. The northern extent of this diffuse cirrus is at the northern edge of Douglas County. After this cirrus moves south, a few more thin cirrus bands may move overhead, but generally clear skies are expected. The high temperature forecast seems on track. Further details are in the discussion below for days 2-6. && .MARINE...Updated 845 AM PDT Sunday, 12 April 2020... Gusty north winds and steep wind wave dominated seas will continue today, peaking again this afternoon and evening. These winds will be strongest and seas will be largest and steepest south of Cape Blanco, but they are not expected to get quite as hazardous as they did yesterday. The thermal trough is then expected to fluctuate only slightly from day to day Monday through Wednesday resulting in conditions generally hazardous to small craft in the vicinity of Cape Blanco southward. Seas will lower a bit during the mornings as the thermal trough weakens during that period of the day. It is likely that the pattern will then shift Thursday into the weekend with a southerly stratus surge followed by a weak cold front from the northwest. -BTL && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 443 AM PDT Sun Apr 12 2020/ DISCUSSION...The area remains under north flow with a longwave upper level trough centered to the east and an upper ridge centered offshore. This pattern will bring dry weather and near normal to slightly above normal high temperatures to the area through Tuesday. Temperature are expected to warm a few degrees on Tuesday as the ridge nudges into the area. This morning some high clouds are present across the area, associated with an upper level disturbance moving into the area. A surface thermal trough along the coast will result in dry northeast offshore flow along coastal areas resulting in breezy north winds during the afternoons and evenings. Also expect a mild Chetco warming effect along the southern Curry coast near Brookings with high temperatures in the lower 70s today and Monday. On Wednesday, models continue to show a weak upper low moving south off the Southern Oregon coast and an upper level disturbance moving down the western side of the trough into far eastern Oregon and Idaho. Models continue to show variability in the exact track and details of the forecast for this period. Have kept a slight chance of showers in the forecast for the mountains in north-central and eastern portions of the area based on ensemble solutions from the GEFS, EC and NBM. However, best chances for showers are expected to be east of the CWA on Wednesday. Another weak upper low or shortwave trough is then expected to shift southward along the coast of Oregon on Thursday before shifting south along the Northern California coast on Friday. The track and strength of this low will be the main factor in determining whether showers develop during this period. Current models and ensembles favor some showers developing by Thursday as wrap around moisture moves into the area. These showers may be limited to mainly areas in Northern California. Confidence remains low in the forecast for this period through due to model variability. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday below 500 feet in the for PZZ356. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday below 500 feet in the for PZZ370. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday below 500 feet in the for PZZ376. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350. $$ MB/BTL