162 FXUS62 KMHX 120843 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 443 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift north through the region today, with a strong cold front to follow Monday night. The front will stall to the south through mid week with low pressure developing along it. High pressure will build into the area late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... As of 420 AM Sunday...Mid and high level clouds will increase and gradually lower later in the day, but it should still be a pleasant Easter Sunday with filtered sunshine allowing high temperatures to climb into the low/mid 70s in most areas, except upper 60s on the Outer Banks. SSE/S winds will start to gradually increase during the afternoon. The threat of precipitation will be limited until around dark with some light showers may impact mainly the western zones. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 420 AM Sunday...The overnight hours will be characterized by increasing SE/S winds, and warm advection showers as a warm front moves north of the area. This will lead to a very warm night with lows in the mid/upper 60s as deep moisture gets advected through our entire CWA ahead of a strong cold front. Winds become quite gusty after midnight, with southerly winds of 15-25 mph, gusting to 30-35 mph, especially near the coast. Have increased PoPs to categorical after midnight with light showers and some elevated thunder possible. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 345 AM Sunday...A strong frontal system will impact the area Monday bringing a threat of severe storms into the early afternoon. The cold front will push across the region Monday night with high pressure briefly building into the area Tuesday, but the front will lift back toward the area Tuesday night and Wednesday with an area of low pressure tracking along it. The front pushes offshore late Wednesday with high pressure building into the area through the end of the week. Monday through Monday night...A negatively tilted shortwave will lift across the Carolinas Monday bringing very strong 60-70 kt LLJ ahead of an approaching cold front that will cross the region mid-morning through the afternoon. Low level theta-e values will surge on the back of the LLJ, building as much as 1500-2000 J/kg of instability by Monday afternoon. Though some timing differences remain, most likely scenario is now that a linear convective element will quickly cross the area late morning into the afternoon. A significantly severe weather event is possible if this convection progresses slowly enough to allow significant instability to build ahead of it. The very strong shear focused in the lowest 1 km indicates that there will be damaging wind threat and possibly a few tornadoes with well organized convective elements. Hail is also possible, but deep vertical convection could be difficult to achieve in such a shear environment, with low-topped supercells more likely. Heavy rainfall will also be possible at times, though individual storms should be progressive enough to preclude a widespread flash flooding threat. Also, expect these strong low level winds to mix to the surface reasonably well bringing gusts around 40 to 45 mph inland and 50-60 mph along the coast. Have issued a High Wind Warning for the OBX and Down East Carteret and a Wind Advisory for the remaining zones along the coast and Pamlico Sound. Additionally, these strong winds will quickly push water northward in the sounds, leading to a coastal flooding threat for the soundside northern OBX. See the COASTAL FLOODING section for more info. Subsidence aloft develops quickly later Monday afternoon with NVA aloft, and POPs trend down quickly. Still, some instability lingers, and a few showers and storms along the strong cold front, which will cross the area through Monday evening and overnight, are possible. Tuesday through Saturday...High pressure briefly builds across the area Tuesday, but the front offshore will lift back toward the area Tuesday night as another robust northern stream shortwave approaches from the west. Moist SW flow continues to bring plenty of Gulf moisture into the region and expect showers to increase late Tuesday through Wednesday. Strong shear will be present but upper level forcing not as strong as the Monday system and instability will be limited, so the severe threat should be minimal. Still could see isolated thunderstorms, mainly coastal sections east of the stalled front where instability could be a little higher. The front will push back offshore Wednesday night with high pressure building into the area through the end of the week bringing dry conditions and gradually warming temps. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term /through 06Z Monday/... As of 1240 AM Sunday...VFR conditions should continue this TAF cycle with any lower clouds holding off until after 06Z Monday. Clear skies will continue overnight except for some mid clouds impacting the Coastal Plains. Southerly winds will become gusty by mid-morning and will increase further by dark tonight with gusts as high as 20-25 knots likely at the TAF sites. Some patchy warm advection light rain is possible after 00z, but should not impact aviation through 06z Monday. Long Term /Monday through Thursday/... As of 415 AM Sunday...A strong frontal system will approach the area Monday, then push across the region Monday night. Flight restrictions with strong southerly wind gusts around 35-40 kt expected at the terminals much of the day Monday, and could see a period of severe storms push across the region Monday morning into the early afternoon. Conditions return to VFR late Monday into Tuesday with another system impacting the region Tuesday night and Wednesday bringing sub-VFR conditions once again. && .MARINE... Short Term /Through Tonight/... As of 420 AM Sunday...Have upgraded Gale Watches to Gale Warnings as short-term guidance continues to indicate a period of very strong SSE/S winds Monday morning into late afternoon. During the day today, winds will generally be S 10-20 knots and seas at 3-5 feet. Winds ramp up to 20-30 knots from the south late tonight with seas building to as high as 10 feet, especially central and northern waters. Long Term /Monday through Thursday/... As of 430 AM Saturday...Strong southerly winds continues Monday as a strong cold front approaches from the west. Solid Gales expected through much of the day Monday, and a Gale Warning has been issued for all marine areas. A period of Storm Force gusts late morning through early afternoon is possible as well. Seas build quickly Sunday afternoon and evening, peaking around 10-15+ ft Monday, highest across the central waters. Winds expected to drop fairly quickly Monday night with the cold front pushing across waters after midnight, while seas are expected to gradually subside to below 6 ft late Tuesday. The front lifts back into the area Tuesday night with an area of low pressure lifting along it Wednesday, then pushes back offshore late in the day. Could see a period of SCA conditions during the day Wednesday, depending on the strength and eventual track of the low, with the best chance of reaching criteria late Wednesday as CAA ramps up behind the front. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 400 AM Sunday...A period of strong southerly winds beginning tomorrow night and peaking Monday will lead to high water levels along the south facing coastline, and against the northern and eastern portions of the Pamlico Sound. Coastal flooding is possible with the greatest chances soundside along the Outer Banks north of Buxton including Roanoke Island. Large waves will also build which will lead to dangerous surf conditions developing and minor beach erosion. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 5 PM EDT Monday for NCZ047-081-094- 194-195-199. High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 4 PM EDT Monday for NCZ196- 203>205. MARINE...Gale Warning from 9 AM to 5 PM EDT Monday for AMZ131-136-137- 230-231. Gale Warning from 6 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ135-150. Gale Warning from 4 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154-156- 158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...SK AVIATION...CTC/SK MARINE...CTC/SK TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX