799 FXUS66 KMFR 111918 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1215 PM PDT Sat Apr 11 2020 The Aviation and Marine sections have been updated... .AVIATION...For the 11/18Z TAF Cycle... Low IFR to MVFR cloudiness is in the process of clearing from about Roseburg westward this morning. This moisture is lifting into some cumulus further inland that will mostly manifest itself in Douglas County east of Roseburg and across the higher terrain this afternoon into early this evening. Expect MVFR in the mentioned areas and partial terrain obscurations across the higher ridges and peaks through early evening. Meanwhile, breezy and gusty north to northwest winds are likely this afternoon into early this evening along the coast and east of the Cascades leading to some bumpy air in the lower levels. This evening there's likely to be a period of MVFR cloudiness for near coastal inland areas and the ocean northwest through north- northeast of Cape Blanco. However, increasing NE winds are likely to push this out to sea overnight. A few pockets of IFR stratus or fog could form along and near the coast toward morning, but this is less likely to occur than it is to not occur. Otherwise, VFR should prevail through the forecast period. -BTL && .MARINE...Updated 845 AM PDT Saturday, 11 April 2020... Marine stratus and fog are expected to impact areas north of Cape Blanco through Sunday. Otherwise, the pattern remains dominated by the thermal trough, with gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas continuing through the next week. The trough will weaken somewhat this weekend, allowing conditions to improve for a brief time for areas roughly north of Bandon. However, winds will restrengthen and seas will steepen again early next week. BTL/Smith && .UPDATE...Aviation discussion has been updated. As winds have turned more northerly the stratus from this mornings marine push has caused clouds to move into the southern half of the Umpqua Basin. No other changes have been made. Below is an account of current satellite observations. For further information about the forecast please reference the previous discussion below. Thus far the stratus/fog mix that resulted from another marine push last night has shown no signs of mixing out as the sun rises along it's eastern edge. However, in the coastal portion of Douglas county and northern Coos county, north winds are turning the uniform cloud deck into cloud streets and will result in more sun reaching the surface and faster erosion of the clouds. There is also some stratus in the lower Rogue Valley that is being scoured out and banked up along the eastern slopes of the foothills. Skies are currently clear over northern California. Cirrus has been forming non-stop from the Cascade ridge and is indicative of the strong winds aloft. It is still expected that these winds will mix down in the afternoon to produce gutsy winds across southern Oregon and especially east of the Cascades. -miles && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 640 AM PDT Sat Apr 11 2020/ DISCUSSION...An upper ridge will remain centered offshore through early next week with generally warm and dry conditions expected across the area. Today and tonight, an upper trough will shift southward across inland areas with a frontal boundary moving across northeast portions of the CWA. Some increased clouds are expected especially over northern portions of the CWA and models are indicating that light precipitation or drizzle is possible over the higher terrain in the south- central Cascades and foothills of western Douglas County this morning. Otherwise the main effect of this trough will be to bring somewhat cooler temperatures (but still above normal) and breezy to gusty winds. Temperatures which have been unseasonably warm the last couple days will trend cooler today with highs in the lower 70s across inland western valleys and in the low to mid 60s for valleys east of the Cascades. As winds increase aloft and the surface pressure gradient increases, expect breezy to gusty northerly winds to develop over most inland areas this afternoon into this evening. Strongest winds with gusts of around 30 mph are expected across areas east of the Cascades today. At the coast, marine low stratus and some patchy, light drizzle are expected through this morning for areas from Cape Blanco northward followed by high clouds over the area this afternoon. Low stratus will return again to these coastal areas tonight and Sunday morning. On Sunday, the longwave trough will remain centered to the east with the upper ridge offshore. With this trough in place, models indicate that temperatures will trend slightly cooler for eastern portions of the area with high temperatures in valleys east of the Cascades reaching around 60. Inland valleys west of the Cascades are expected to see highs again in the lower 70s on Sunday. Also of note, areas east of the Cascades will see cooler morning temperatures with lowers in the upper 20s Sunday and Monday mornings. At the coast, morning low clouds are expected across Coos and coastal Douglas counties with clearing in the afternoon. Low clouds are not expected across Curry County today into Sunday due to drier northeast flow associated with a surface thermal trough. Breezy northerly winds are likely in the afternoons and evenings at the coast today and Sunday. This overall pattern remains in place into Monday into Tuesday. So expect little change in conditions across the area. Coastal areas will continue to see breezy to gusty northerly winds in the afternoons and evenings as well. Temperatures across the are will generally be slightly above normal west of the Cascades and near normal east of the Cascades. However, models are indicating the ridge may nudge slightly into the area late Tuesday which may allow high temperatures to trend a couple degrees warmer. Mid week, a low pressure will near the coast and an upper shortwave will drop south and may track into eastern portions of the area. There is low confidence on the track and strength of these two systems though. So while some model solutions favor showers into central and eastern portions of the area on Wednesday, confidence remains low. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. Pacific Coastal Waters... - Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356-370- 376. $$ MB/BTL