824 
FXUS64 KTSA 092314
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
614 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail for all sites the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 224 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020/ 

DISCUSSION...
Main forecast concerns revolve around the strong cold front set 
to move through the area on Sunday, including its impact on
temperatures and the potential for thunderstorms.

Surface high pressure will continue to move into the area tonight,
with winds dropping off and skies clearing leading to overnight
lows near freezing across parts of northeast Oklahoma and far
northwest Arkansas. Have included a mention of patchy frost near
the Kansas and Missouri borders tonight. Will forecast lows right
at freezing for a few spots, but given uncertainties and the small
areal extent, will not go with a Freeze Warning at this time.
Later shifts will be apprised of this concern, though. Below
normal temperatures and light winds will continue tomorrow before
the surface high begins to move away from the area late in the
day.

Southerly winds make a return Friday night and into Saturday, with
increasing moisture resulting. A few showers may be possible early
Saturday morning, but better chances will arrive during the day
Saturday and into Saturday night as a disturbance in advance of
the main upper level trough moves through the region. The strong
cold front, as it stands now, should begin to move through the
area sometime early to mid afternoon on Sunday, with falling
temperatures and strong northerly winds following its passage.
Showers with isolated thunderstorms will be possible mainly along
and ahead of the front into the evening, with the dry slot moving
in from the southwest overnight, cutting off the precip from
southwest to northeast. Depending on how quickly things clear off
Sunday night and Monday morning, we may be dealing with a better
chance of a freeze across parts of northeast Oklahoma and far
northwest Arkansas.

The early part of the work week will feature well below normal
temperatures. A fast moving disturbance will bring a small chance
of showers to parts of the area Monday night and into Tuesday.
There is a nonzero chance that there could be some snowflakes
mixed in but will not put in the forecast at this time.

Temperatures will begin to warm mid to late week, although they
will likely remain well below normal. The next chance of showers
will come Thursday and into Thursday night with another cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  62  47  69 /   0   0  20  30 
FSM   40  63  44  66 /   0   0  20  50 
MLC   40  65  48  66 /   0   0  20  60 
BVO   33  61  44  69 /   0   0  20  20 
FYV   34  60  42  65 /   0   0  20  40 
BYV   33  60  43  64 /   0   0  20  40 
MKO   36  61  45  66 /   0   0  20  50 
MIO   32  59  42  65 /   0   0  20  40 
F10   38  62  47  65 /   0   0  20  50 
HHW   45  66  46  66 /  10   0  10  80 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....18