415 FXUS64 KMAF 051954 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 254 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2020 .DISCUSSION... A blocky pattern persists at high latitudes today. A potent upper low currently offshore the northern Californian coast is forecast by a consensus of the models to dig southward to northern Baja California Norte by Wednesday. Meanwhile, southwesterly flow aloft will continue over west Texas and southeastern New Mexico, along with concomitant surface lee troughing. Thereafter, the forecast becomes tricky. More on that in a bit. There is a slim possibility that there will be some showers and maybe a rumble of thunder over the Big Bend overnight. Otherwise expect above normal temperatures along with areas of fog developing after midnight. Despite some high cloudiness the next few days, temperatures will warm to above normal readings through Wednesday. Winds will generally be out of the south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph, with some higher gusts not out of the question over the Guadalupe mountains as well as the eastern Permian Basin within a few hours after sunrise. As Yoda might say about Thursday, high uncertainty there is. Deterministic models differ over the evolution of the aforementioned upper low, with the GFS the most progressive in taking the system across the desert Southwest and opens the low into a wave over the Southern Plains Friday morning. Meanwhile, the latest ECMWF keeps the low back over Arizona by Friday morning and delays its progression out by about 24-36 hours. While this is going on, a strong short wave trough dropping out from Canada will send a cold front down across the Central Plains Wednesday and should reach the northeastern CWA Thursday morning. But will the front hang up in response to surface pressure falls in advance of the southwestern US low? Model solutions show as much as a 20 degree spread for high temperatures across the Permian Basin on Thursday, and backdoor shallow cold fronts are notorious for being faster than even the fastest model solution. Should a solution more like the ECMWF pan out, then the front should have no problem making it southwest as far as the mountains Thursday; however, should the more progressive GFS be closer to reality, the front could hang up across the Permian Basin Thursday before finally shoving through Thursday night. Temperature bust potential is there, certainly. A compromise solution, especially this far out, seems to be the safest bet right now, undercutting the latest NBM guidance by several degrees, but that could change depending upon the evolution of the desert SW low. More certain is the chances for sensible weather...with the expected southwesterly low level flow in place, moisture return before fropa Thursday morning (or Thursday night?) doesn't look too likely. Maybe some showers over the eastern Permian Basin, but that would be it. Good Friday through Easter Sunday look to be at or a bit below normal with the potential for cooler temperatures on tap for next week as a broad cyclonic flow shapes up over the CONUS. Right now, it looks like conditions will be dry. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 59 80 59 84 / 0 10 0 0 Carlsbad 55 82 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 61 78 63 87 / 10 10 10 0 Fort Stockton 59 80 61 84 / 0 10 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 53 70 51 72 / 0 10 0 0 Hobbs 54 78 53 82 / 0 10 0 0 Marfa 51 73 50 78 / 0 10 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 58 80 59 84 / 0 10 0 0 Odessa 58 80 59 84 / 0 10 0 0 Wink 57 82 56 86 / 0 10 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ 44/70