461 
FXUS64 KMEG 051537
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1037 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2020

.UPDATE...

SFC high pressure remains over the Mid-South this morning. Skies
are mainly clear with the exception of some lingering stratus near
the MO/AR and KY/TN borders. Expect the stratus to continue to
break up over the next couple of hours. Adjusted the forecast
earlier to make minor changes to sky conditions. Expect highs in 
the mid 60s to upper 70s. Current forecast looks good. No further 
updates are expected.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /issued 356 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2020/ 

There is quite a wide range of temperatures across the Midsouth 
this morning. A weak cold front has become hard to pick out in 
observations as winds have shifted from the North as far South as 
Interstate 20 yet temperatures remain in the low 60s at Tupelo, MS
with dew points in the middle 50s. Farther North, portions of the
Missouri Bootheel and Northeast Arkansas are in the middle to 
upper 40s. Most of the Midsouth is in the 50s. We should see 
morning lows ranging from the Middle 40s to the middle 50s. Light 
North wind area wide should limit the development of fog. 

The main influencing factor on our weather today and tomorrow will
be a broad, strengthening ridge slowly building in from the West.
This feature will help to suppress any showers today, but also
allow temperatures rebound. Highs this afternoon should be mostly
in the mid 60s to mid 70s with mid 70s to low 80s tomorrow. The
warm temperatures tomorrow afternoon could help generate an
afternoon shower or two.  

Tuesday the ridge will continue to shift East, becoming centered
closer to the Alabama state line by the afternoon hours. A mid 
level disturbance will move up the west side of the ridge tomorrow
night into Tuesday resulting in a round of showers and possibly a
few thunderstorms. However, we will likely still have too much 
influence from the ridge for widespread thunderstorms...and no 
strong or severe storms are expected. 

Midweek, a low will deepen off the Southern California coast. 
This will initially translate to weak ridging across the Midsouth 
again Wednesday resulting in decreased pops Tuesday night into 
Wednesday. Highs Wednesday afternoon should exceed 80 degrees area
wide. A cold front will move across the Midsouth Wednesday 
night.  Highs Thursday and Friday should be in the 60s.  

As the West Coast low moves onshore later in the week, West to 
Southwest flow will return to the Midsouth resulting in increasing
rain chances. There are significant timing and location 
differences in the extended guidance. The GFS has the upper low 
over the Texas Panhandle Friday morning while the ECMWF has it 
over Southwestern Western Arizona. The latter solution would keep 
the ridge in place longer over the Midsouth, resulting in a 
drier, warmer forecast. Neither scenario looks particularly 
threatening from a severe weather standpoint. Will maintain low 
chance pops for the end of the work week into the weekend with 
near normal temperatures. 

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/12z TAFs/

VFR conditions will prevail during this TAF period. Skies remain 
mostly clear across the Mid- South with low stratus just to the 
north and west and some high clouds over TUP. Have removed MVFR
cigs at JBR this morning as low stratus has yet to approach the
area. If stratus does move in not anticipating it will last but a
few hours at most. Winds will remain from the north 4-8kts 
through much of the period. By the end of the period winds will 
become light and veer more to the NE/E. 

17

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$