783 FXUS62 KTAE 031823 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 223 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020 .NEAR TERM [Through Saturday]... Weak ridging continues to dominate the area through tomorrow. An upper level shortwave has brought high clouds to the area today and some of these higher level clouds will stick around through tomorrow. Lows tonight will fall into the mid 50s with highs tomorrow in the low to mid 80s, both above normal. .SHORT TERM [Saturday night through Sunday night]... The ridge will be flattened during this period with embedded short wave impulses moving through it across the Gulf Coast region. Surface high pressure will shift east allowing low level winds to veer to easterly. There appears to be sufficient moisture and forcing for ascent to maintain slight chance PoPs for most of the area for Sunday afternoon, slightly higher over our eastern zones due to increased convergence along the sea breeze boundary. Temperatures will be warm with Sunday's highs in the lower to mid 80s. Overnight lows will be around 60, about 10 degrees above normal. .LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]... This looks to be a very unsettled period with almost daily chances for strong to severe storms. The upper ridge axis will drift west of the area over the Lower Mississippi Valley putting the forecast area in a northwest flow regime. There will be plenty of shear for organized storms, but instability will be a limiting factor. While strong to severe storms will be possible each day from Tuesday through the end of the period, Wednesday looks to be the mostly like day for severe due to higher instability. && .AVIATION... [Through 18Z Saturday] VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. High clouds are in place across the area and will persist across some areas through tonight. Winds will be light. && .MARINE... Conditions will be almost summerlike over the marine area through the weekend with light easterly winds shifting to onshore in afternoon sea breezes. Onshore flow will increase a bit by Tuesday. ON Wednesday, look for westerly winds increasing to near 15 knots at times. && .FIRE WEATHER... Conditions will be dry Saturday with RH values in the mid 20 percent range. With increasing moisture, RH values will be above critical thresholds on Sunday. Even with the dry air on Saturday, winds will be light and thus red flag warning conditions will not be met. && .HYDROLOGY... Minimal to no rainfall is expected through Saturday night. daily rain chances commence Sunday afternoon, but at no point next week are we expecting rainfall totals to result in any flooding. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 55 85 60 84 60 / 0 0 0 20 10 Panama City 60 81 65 80 64 / 0 0 10 20 10 Dothan 56 82 61 83 60 / 0 0 0 20 10 Albany 56 81 59 81 60 / 0 0 0 20 0 Valdosta 55 82 59 81 59 / 0 0 0 30 10 Cross City 54 85 59 81 60 / 0 0 0 30 10 Apalachicola 59 78 64 77 64 / 0 0 0 20 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Fieux SHORT TERM...Wool LONG TERM...Wool AVIATION...Fieux MARINE...Wool FIRE WEATHER...Fieux HYDROLOGY...Wool