611 
FXUS65 KFGZ 312151
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
251 PM MST Tue Mar 31 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Warm temperatures through Wednesday will become near 
normal by Friday and into the weekend. Strong southwest winds are
expected both Wednesday and Thursday before a brief period of 
lighter winds on Friday. Slight chance of showers starting Monday
afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure aloft will persist over the desert 
Southwest through Wednesday. This will keep the warm and above
normal temperatures continuing for another day.

Wednesday - Friday...A trough located in the northern Inter- 
Mountain West will begin to tighten the pressure gradient aloft
over the Southwest Wednesday. The result will be the start of a 
two day stretch of strong southwesterly winds. The strongest winds
Wednesday will be during the afternoon with gusts generally
between 25 and 35 MPH. Wind speeds will decrease slightly 
Wednesday night, but remain locally breezy. The gradient is 
expected to be strongest Thursday morning and produce the
strongest winds of the two days through early Thursday evening. 
Wind speeds are forecast to be below Advisory levels Wednesday, 
but have trended upward on Thursday with the afternoon forecast 
package today. Look for continued updates over the next twenty 
four hours for Thursday wind speeds.

Slightly colder air will move in behind the dry trough and result
in temperatures cooling to near-normal by Friday. The gradient
aloft will be relaxed on Friday and help to bring a brief period 
of lighter winds.

Saturday and Sunday...A shortwave trough from the Pacific will 
travel across northern California and Nevada Saturday. Although no
precipitation is expected in northern Arizona, wind speeds will 
again increase Saturday and Sunday. The wind speeds this weekend 
are expected to be lighter than what is forecast for Wednesday and
Thursday.

Monday...Deterministic operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF and
ensemble mean QPF values are showing a possibility for some
shower activity by Monday. Any showers associated with the 
possible northern Pacific system look to begin later Monday and 
spread from west to east across the CWA. 

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Expect VFR conditions and mid to 
high clouds for the 24 hour TAF forecast period. Surface winds 
remaining at 5-15 knots through 12Z. Gradually increasing southwest 
winds after 12Z will become 10-20g23-33 knots between 17Z and 00Z 
Thursday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and mostly dry conditions will persist through
Wednesday. Southwest winds will remain gusty from Wednesday 
morning through Thursday evening.

Friday through Sunday...Dry conditions will continue through this 
period. Lighter winds on Friday will give way to another round of 
gusty southwest winds on Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...NL
AVIATION...NL
FIRE WEATHER...NL


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