451 FXUS61 KBTV 310249 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1049 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system north of the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon will slowly track southeast to the New England coastal waters by Tuesday while weakening. Areas of rain will transition to snow this evening before ending after midnight. Drier weather is in store for Tuesday and Wednesday but unsettled weather will return to the North Country Thursday. High pressure will situate over the region for Friday and Saturday yielding a very pleasant weather before another front moves through the region on Sunday. Temperatures will remain right around seasonal normals through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 1043 PM EDT Monday...Slow-moving vertically stacked low pressure system over sern Ontario will gradually shift sewd across upstate NY overnight. Will see periods of light rain and mountain light snow gradually dissipate during the pre-dawn hours as this system settles off to the south, and drier N-NE flow increases late tonight into Tuesday. Overnight lows generally in the 30-35F range. Not anticipating much additional snow accumulation overnight, but did receive a report of 2.3" in Ludlow earlier this evening. For Tuesday and Tuesday night, the aforementioned upper low continues to gyre off the New England coast but conditions trend dry with some clearing expected from north to south through the day. Unfortunately, persistent northeasterly flow will allow clouds to build back in during the late afternoon and evening hours with another mostly cloudy night on tap for Tuesday night. Highs will range through the 40s tomorrow, and lows 20s tomorrow night. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 325 PM EDT Monday...Cool and mostly cloudy conditions will prevail for this period as the persistent upper low will become reestablished over the north Country Wednesday, then shifts a bit eastward off the coast Wednesday night. A few showers will be possible across the higher terrain during the afternoon hours. Daytime highs will be in the lower to mid 40s, though north winds and lack of sunshine will likely make it feel cooler. Precipitation chances will increase slowly Wednesday night as moisture begins to pinwheel back toward the region from eastern New England, though much of any precipitation activity associated with this moisture should hold off until Thursday. Temperatures will be cold enough for any precipitation to fall as snow, though accumulations would be minor. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 325 PM EDT Monday...Model consensus has improved regarding potential for moisture and precipitation to shift westward into the region Thursday into Thursday night as it pivots around low pressure spinning south of Nova Scotia. It will start out as snow in the morning will change over to rain as temperatures warm into the 40s. The low will move away Friday, giving way to ridging coming in from the west. This will lead to drier and warmer conditions, especially Saturday-Sunday when temperatures will rise into the lower to mid 50s. A frontal system will approach later Sunday into Monday (models differ on exact timing though have come into better agreement), and this will spread another round of showers across the area for early next week. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 00Z Wednesday...Active weather continues through 06Z, including some IFR conditions at SLK and MSS, before a marked improvement with skies clearing. At SLK, light rain should mix with snow after 02Z with visibility falling to 3 miles at times and IFR ceilings through 06Z. Meanwhile, MSS will have MVFR rain showers, followed by lowering ceilings to under 1000 feet briefly in response to advection of lower level moisture from the northeast. Similarly, precipitation at SLK should end around 06Z with ceilings remaining low. At both MSS and SLK, ceilings should lift to VFR after 15Z. Steady light rain with MVFR ceilings will persist through 06Z at PBG and BTV, and a lighter rain/snow mix is likely at MPV. Any heavier shower at MPV will be likely to fall as snow and lower visibility briefly while maintaining VFR conditions. After 06Z, PBG, BTV, and MPV should see overcast lower to around 2000 feet before lifting by 12Z and scattering after 15Z. At RUT, light rain will end towards 07Z with MVFR ceilings prevailing throughout the night, and will struggle to scatter out by 16Z. Outlook... Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Banacos/Lahiff SHORT TERM...Hastings LONG TERM...Hastings AVIATION...Kutikoff