661 FXUS63 KTOP 291742 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1242 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020 08Z water vapor imagery shows a closed low lifting over the Upper Midwest. Another low amplitude shortwave was noted approaching the central CA coast. A third upper low could be see over the Gulf of Alaska. Shortwave ridging was seen over the central and northern Rockies. At the surface, a low pressure system was lifting into WI and weak ridging was filling in behind this system across the southern and central plains. && ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020 For today and tonight, the weather is expected to be quieter as shortwave ridging develops over the central plains. Forecast soundings show a dry airmass moving in with deep mixing anticipated. This should allow for sunny skies to prevail. A deep westerly wind profile is also expected to help warm temps into the mid and upper 60s. This may also cause dry air to mix to the surface causing RH values to fall into the 20 to 30 percent range. With surface winds in the 10 to 20 MPH range, fire danger may be of some concern and something for the day shift to keep an eye on. Winds let up overnight tonight. Combined with the dry air, lows should fall into the mid 30s and around 40. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020 The next chance for shower and perhaps a rumble of thunder continues to be late Monday and Monday night. Overall models have trended slightly south with the track of the storm system. But there appears to be good Q vector convergence moving across central KS while the better PV anomaly stays mainly south of the forecast area. The main affect of this is to shift the higher POPs south, although still maintaining likely POPs across most of the forecast area. Some steep mid level lapse rates initially support some modest elevated instability. This does not look to stick around for long. Once precip begins, the column is progged to saturate with lapse rates close to the moist adiabat. So overall thunderstorms look to remain isolated if they develop at all. This system is expected to remain progressive with precip moving out early in the day Tuesday. For Wednesday through Friday, confidence in the forecast remains below average as models show little run to run consistency. Although the model runs from the same initialization time seem to be coming up with similar solutions. In short a closed low is anticipated over the northern plains. As energy rotates around the upper low, a cold front is projected to move through the central plains. Timing of this boundary has varied over the last couple days from anywhere between Tuesday night and now Thursday night. Overall synoptic forcing for vertical motion appears to be weakly organized so I think the better chances for precip through the second half of work week will be centered around when the front moves through. For now just have some low chance POPs Thursday and Thursday night given the poor run to run consistency. Temps are forecast to remain on the mild side with highs in the 60s and lows generally in the 40s. Once the front does move through, this is expected to cool temps with highs in the 50s Friday and Saturday. Lows are forecast to fall to around the freezing mark by Saturday morning. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020 VFR conditions prevail through this period. Any chances for precipitation should hold off until at least the next forecast period. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Wolters SHORT TERM...Wolters LONG TERM...Wolters AVIATION...Drake