507 FXUS61 KCTP 291448 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1048 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Additional showers along with scattered thunderstorms are expected today as a cold front moves east across the state. Breezy, cooler and drier conditions are expected for Monday and Tuesday with some rain or snow showers expected over northern and western sections. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Sfc warm front abutting the Alleghenies this morning. East of the mountains it's cloudy and dank with areas of fog and drizzle and light showers and temperatures in the mid to upper 40s. West of the Alleghenies in the warm sector, it's in the mid to upper 60s with dewpoints pushing 60F. The warm front will make a jump to the north later this morning and early this afternoon before a cold front catches up to it over eastern PA. SPC pushed western portions of our CWA into SLGT risk for today, as propagation of dry slot *may* allow for enough sfc destablization to support damaging winds and sporadic severe hail. Should the above scenario play out, instability profiles will be similar to Saturday afternoon, with the marginal storms impacting western/central counties with lessening chances/coverage farther east. Cold front moves east of central PA by late this afternoon. CAMs depict a broken line of gusty showers and a few thunderstorms along it that cross western and central PA in the 14-21z time frame. Strong wind fields will reside across the region but uncertainty remains regarding destablization, so SPC has painted a broad MRGL risk for today. This could also impact the max temperature forecast. Shower activity should shift into the eastern 1/2 of the CWA Sunday afternoon before the cold front exits the area by early Sunday evening. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Conditions should dry out for the most part tonight with some lingering showers possible in the northern tier. Gusty winds will continue into Monday over the Laurel Highlands. Cooler, cyclonic flow aloft associated with slow moving upper low moving from east from southern Ontario into New England should support additional rain showers across the northern tier on Monday. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler than Sunday with a 24hr change up to 10-20 degrees across the western 1/2 of the area. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 1030 am update... Overall, a seasonably chilly and somewhat unsettled week is in store for central PA, as a broad upper- level trough dominates the northeastern U.S. Some moderation is possible by later next weekend, as the trough begins to lift out, and heights build from west to east across the region. As for the daily sensible weather, Tuesday should be mainly dry, with a weak surface ridge briefly in control across the Commonwealth. Even so, a few isolated showers can't be ruled over the northern tier, closer to residual upper-level energy and colder air aloft. On Wednesday, model trends continue to push the track of a surface wave farther to the south, now generally across the Carolinas. As a result, the steadiest precipitation should remain south of the Commonwealth. However, with an upper-level trough rebuilding over the area, along with an attendant inverted trough axis in the lower levels of the atmosphere, periods of light rain are possible, especially across south- central PA. It is not out of the question that wet snow could mix in over the higher terrain, especially early in the morning. Even if this happens, though, accumulations would be minimal or non-existent. Then, Thursday-Saturday, with cool temperatures aloft overhead due to the proximity of an upper trough axis, along with some residual moisture, isolated-scattered showers can be anticipated each day. However, much of the time will probably be rain-free, with heavy rainfall not expected. Once again, overnight and early morning temperatures may support a mix of rain and wet snow showers over the higher terrain. As for daily high temperatures, they should range generally from the mid 40s-mid 50s Tuesday-Thursday. Thereafter, they should slowly moderate, with 50s-lower 60s foreseen Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As another round of showers moves off to the east this morning, more showers are expected to move across the area later this morning and early afternoon as a cold front moves across PA. Expect sub VFR conditions for much of the day in low clouds and occasional showers/thunderstorms. Cigs should come up later today to VFR as the cold front moves off to the east. .Outlook... Monday...Mostly cloudy and dry with mainly VFR vsbys, but areas of MVFR cigs. Tuesday...Mostly sunny, VFR Cigs and vsbys. Tuesday night Wednesday...Thickening clouds and rain, possibly mixed with wet snow across the higher terrain. Thursday...Improving conditions in northwest flow. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/RXR NEAR TERM...DeVoir/RXR SHORT TERM...DeVoir/RXR LONG TERM...Jurewicz AVIATION...Gartner/Travis