500 FXUS62 KFFC 291100 AAA AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 700 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020 .UPDATE FOR AVIATION... PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 318 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020/ SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/... A cold front is forecast to move across the area today and this evening. Model guidance continues to be consistent with weakening the line of showers and thunderstorms as it moves into the area. This is always a nervous forecast given the strength of the line in NW AL. But we will continue to watch it. Once the rain chances end this afternoon, the forecast looks to be dry the remainder of the short term as surface high pressure moves to the area. Forecast high temperatures are running about 5-15 degrees above normal across the area today and around normal to as much as 10 degrees above normal on Monday. Forecast low temperatures are running about 10-17 degrees above normal for tonight. Overall confidence is medium. BDL LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/... Ridge across the CWA on Monday night will quickly move offshore by early Tuesday as low pressure center develops and moves across the southeast states. The NAM and GFS are in good agreement with the track and timing of the low center on Tuesday, mainly across south central GA. The best surface instability should remain south of the low track, and the models are showing that with the highest CAPE values closest to the coast with 600-700 J/kg roughly across the southern quarter of the forecast area. Mid level lapse rates are marginally steep across the same area, but the main cold pool aloft remains well north of the most unstable area. The best shear and jet forcing do not coincide with the best surface instability/steepest lapse rates at this time. Do think the best chances for severe weather will be along and south of the low pressure track. If the low tracks a little further north than expected, the potential for severe weather may increase further into central GA. For now, do think the best potential for severe weather will remain across the southern quarter of the CWA. A strong elevated thunderstorm also cannot be ruled out across central portions of the CWA. High pressure will build across the area in the wake of the low center and remain in place for the middle part of the week. The high center should move offshore by Friday ahead of a weekend cold front. NListemaa && CLIMATE... Records for 03-29 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 85 2017 47 1959 62 1977 25 1887 1928 1907 KATL 85 2017 43 1894 65 1924 25 1887 KCSG 89 2007 48 1926 67 1997 32 1955 1945 1953 1948 KMCN 88 2017 47 1926 67 1924 27 2015 && .AVIATION... 12Z Update... MVFR-lower VFR ceilings will improve to higher VFR ceilings through the day. A line of showers and some thunderstorms is weakening but could redevelop some later today before dissipating for good. Surface winds WSW 8-12 kts with some gusts to 20 kts becoming WNW through the day. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... Medium confidence for ceilings and any convection at the airfield. High confidence for vsbys and winds. BDL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 81 56 74 55 / 20 0 0 10 Atlanta 78 56 72 55 / 20 0 0 20 Blairsville 73 50 67 49 / 30 0 0 30 Cartersville 77 54 71 53 / 30 0 0 30 Columbus 84 59 80 60 / 20 5 0 10 Gainesville 77 55 70 53 / 20 0 0 20 Macon 85 58 79 58 / 20 5 0 5 Rome 77 54 71 52 / 30 0 0 30 Peachtree City 80 55 74 55 / 20 0 0 20 Vidalia 90 63 84 61 / 5 5 0 5 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BDL LONG TERM....NListemaa AVIATION...BDL