215 FXUS64 KLCH 291019 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 519 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2020 .DISCUSSION... CDFNT continues to push toward the SE early this morning, having just cleared Marsh Island and nearing Morgan City. Boundary is denoted on radar as a narrow band of light showers, with the earlier post frontal activity now dissipated. Temperatures on the cool side range from the mid 50s across interior SE TX and Central LA to the mid/upper 60s across South Central LA, with lower 70s still observed in the small warm sector near the lower Atchafalaya. These readings will come down a few more degrees as the front passes before the drop is halted by diurnal warming. Drier air is also filtering in as evidenced by SFC dewpoints in the mid 50s to lower 60s vs the near 70s 24 HRS ago. A clearing sky has also worked into the NW third or so of the area, which has allowed some patchy fog to form across the TX lakes region into Central LA. This fog should erode quickly post sunrise. Progress of the front is expected to slow and eventually stall later this morning, with post frontal cloud cover likely to persist over a good part of the coastal waters and parts of South Central LA. This will keep afternoon temperatures here a little cooler, but areawide highs are still expected to top out at or above 80. The stalled front will retreat back to the north tonight into MON as an upstream upper trof off the CA coast translates through the Desert SW and nears the Plains. Could see some spotty warm advection showers/isolated TSTMS late tonight into MON morning as MSTR lifts back into the region, but the bulk of convection will occur MON afternoon and night as the upper trof crosses the Southern Plains and an associated SFC low traverses N LA. SPC continues to outline a SLGT risk of SVR TSTMS across much of northern and parts of Central LA, with a MRGL risk down to the I-10 corridor. Damaging winds and/or hail will be the primary severe weather hazards. With the resurgence in MSTR/return of WAA, temperatures tonight will be warmer than lows this morning, and back into the mid 60s/lower 70s MON night/TUE morning. Highs both MON and TUE will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lagging CDFNT late TUE will usher in another bout of drier and slightly cooler air into the region, with near normal lows and highs expected WED. Reprieve won't last too long, however, as temperatures are expected to begin moderating WED night. Warming trend will continue through FRI, until another weak front pushes into the area on SAT. Global models also starting to come into better agreement regarding increasing rain chances toward the end the week and into the weekend, though there remain some differences to be resolved. Nudged PoPs up a bit with this forecast. 13 && .MARINE... A cold front will continue pushing through the coastal waters this morning, with a brief period of elevated offshore flow expected over the waters west of Intracoastal City. The front will stall over the Gulf this afternoon, and begin to retreat back to the north tonight and Monday, with a light to modest onshore flow resuming. Another cold front will sweep through the coastal waters on Tuesday, ushering in another period of offshore flow into Wednesday. Southeast winds return Wednesday night and Thursday. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 80 59 77 64 / 10 20 60 80 LCH 81 64 80 70 / 10 20 40 70 LFT 80 65 82 70 / 10 20 40 70 BPT 81 67 79 70 / 10 30 30 50 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$