140 FXUS61 KBTV 290846 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 446 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020 .SYNOPSIS... An active period of weather is expected across the North Country today through Monday. A large upper level low pressure system over the Upper Midwest will move slowly eastward over the next two days and bring widespread precipitation to the area. The majority of the precipitation will be in the form of rain, but there will be the potential for some high elevation snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Total rainfall amounts will generally be around an inch and this will result in rises on area waterways. In addition, look for strong and gusty downslope winds along the west slopes of the Green Mountains and northern Adirondacks later today through this evening. Drier weather returns for Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures right around seasonal normals. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 446 AM EDT Sunday...Active period of weather expected today into Monday. Flow aloft has finally turned to the west- southwest and will eventually go southwest later today and tonight. This is in response to the large upper level low across the Upper Midwest that will be moving slowly eastward today and eventually across our area on Monday. The backing flow aloft is important because it is finally allowing upstream precipitation to move our way. Southern areas have seen some light rain early this morning that really has not amounted to much more than a few hundredths of precipitation. The more substantial rainfall will be with the precipitation that overspreads our area this morning. We should eventually get into the warm sector later today and as the rain decreases in areal coverage a bit some mixing should take place and allow for gusty winds to develop. Areas other than the higher terrain that are expected to experience these stronger southeast winds will be along the west slopes of the Green Mountains and northern Adirondacks. Looking at wind gusts in the 35 to 45 mph range in these favored downslope regions. Over Rutland County in Vermont a few spots could see gusts to 50 mph. Daytime highs will be in the 40s to around 50. Thermal profile tonight supports the idea of a wide variety of precipitation. Lower elevations will stay all rain, but cooling of the column below the pronounced warm layer aloft suggests the highest elevations will see a change to freezing rain in the evening to early overnight hours before trending toward snow showers on Monday. Parts of the Northeast Kingdom in Vermont could also see some freezing rain and maybe even a little sleet before trending toward some snow showers. While this transition is taking place the areal coverage of precipitation will be decreasing so impacts should be minimal. Precipitation will expand in areal coverage again on Monday as upper low moves east across the area. Widespread rain is expected by the late morning and early afternoon hours with highs in the 40s. One other item of note is with total rainfall amounts generally around an inch to inch and a quarter there will be rises on rivers and streams. Snowpack is generally confined to the higher elevations and there should be some snowmelt helping cause rises on rivers. Some of the mainstem rivers will have the potential to at least reach action stage and this situation will need to be monitored. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 446 AM EDT Sunday...Widespread rain and snow showers will continue through the overnight hours Monday night into Tuesday morning. Based on model derived thermal profiles, snow showers will initially be most likely across the higher peaks of the Green and Adirondack Mountains before the snow level begins to descend as we begin to see some decent cold air advection. However, as you get below 2000 ft, rain won't fully change over to snow until the pre-dawn hours Tuesday but at this time precipitation will be quickly tapering off as drier air begins to situate across the region. The Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys will likely remain all rain but a brief shot of snow is not out of the question prior to precipitation tapering off. Drier conditions are in store for Tuesday, although a few stray showers are not out of the question as the upper level low remains over the North Country. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler in response to the cold core low with highs only warming into the lower to mid 40s. Temperatures Tuesday night will remain right around seasonal normals as cloud cover only allows us to radiate out into the mid 20s to lower 30s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 446 AM EDT Sunday...As we have been advertising, the unsettled weather pattern will continue through the remainder of the work week. While we remain under the influence of the upper level trough, several shortwaves will reinforce and amplify the trough across the northeastern US. This will help to shift the jet stream south of the North Country which should allow us to begin drying out as we head late into the week. However, in the mean time, we will continue to see 20%-30% chances for PoPs Wednesday, Thursday and Friday as we remain under broad cyclonic flow. A light at the end of the tunnel begins to appear on Saturday as all deterministic and ensemble guidance shows a large amplification of the longwave trough building across the North Country on Saturday. This should allow for drier weather with even some sunshine to develop across the North Country on Saturday. This upper level ridge will unfortunately be very transient and will push out to sea with the next frontal system expected to drag a weak cold front through the region Sunday or Monday depending on what model you look at. Overall, this front looks very meager with the part low occluding over central Canada so we likely won't see much in terms of precipitation or cool down with the front as we head into late Sunday. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 06Z Monday...Low level wind shear and lowering ceilings and visibilities can be expected after 12z as a large upper level low pressure system moves slowly toward the region. VFR conditions are expected until 12z...but look for MVFR/IFR conditions as rain becomes widespread over the region between 12z and 18z and persists through about 00z before becoming more showery in nature. Strong southeast winds at 2000 feet...in the 30 to 50 knot range...will exist over the area between 15z and 03z. This will be sufficient to create low level wind shear at all sites during this period. Surface wind gusts will increase this afternoon at most locations with gusts in the 15 to 30 knot range. Low level wind shear will come to an end after 03z as stronger flow aloft moves out of the area. Outlook... Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Definite SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson SHORT TERM...Clay LONG TERM...Clay AVIATION...Evenson