774 FXUS64 KLCH 281731 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1231 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 .DISCUSSION... For the 28/18Z TAF Issuance. && .AVIATION... A weak cold front will move across the forecast area this evening. Ahead of the front, breezy south winds will continue until sunset, with mainly VFR ceilings, with the exception at KBPT, where MVFR ceilings look to hang around. Mid level capping looks to preclude much in the way of shower activity until the front arrives, with best shot of convection at the KAEX terminal between 29/00Z and 29/06Z. MVFR ceilings will also prevail at terminals after 29/00Z until front moves through. Winds to become mainly light northerly behind the front, with drier air gradually moving in to lift ceilings to VFR by morning. Rua && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 927 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020/ UPDATE... The current forecast is on track this morning and no changes were made. KPOE radar depicts scattered light showers associated with an approaching cold front across east Texas at this hour and this activity will continue to slowly spread into southeast Texas late this morning and into the afternoon. This activity will precede a somewhat linear line of activity expected to develop along the leading edge of the frontal boundary which will move from west to east across the region this evening into tonight. SPC has shifted their day 1 slight risk area further south to now include much of north Louisiana with the marginal risk area barely clipping parts of northern Vernon and Rapides parishes. Overall severe weather risk across the area remains very low. Jones PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 609 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020/ AVIATION...Generally MVFR ceilings will prevail this morning, however periods of IFR or VFR conditions will also occur. Ceilings will lift through the late morning before becoming MVFR again this evening as a front moves through. Showers and storms will be possible this afternoon and evening with chances greatest at KAEX. South winds will become northwest this evening. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 503 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020/ DISCUSSION... Warm and muggy start to the day across the area this morning, with temperatures currently in the lower/mid 70s and SFC dewpoints not lagging too far behind. Region lies within warm advection regime between robust mid/upper ridge over the ERN Gulf and an upper trof just emerging onto the Plains per satellite imagery. A second upstream trof is noted still offshore the PAC NW. Today is expected to start out much like yesterday, with a mix of clouds and sun amid steadily warming temperatures. As the upper trof and associated SFC low over the Plains lifts NE toward the Upper Midwest this afternoon and tonight, a trailing SFC CDFNT will push EWD into SE TX this afternoon, and continue through the rest of the forecast area this evening. A mainly linear band of showers with embedded thunderstorms will accompany the front, though the intensity of this activity is a question mark. Most high resolution short term guidance points toward an overall downward trend as it enters SE TX, with the exception of some degree of maintenance across parts of Central LA, which is also the area clipped by a SPC MRGL risk for a severe wind/hail. Looking at forecast soundings, the risk does indeed appear marginal, mainly owing to a poor thermodynamic environment as deep layer wind shear is adequate. Relatively cooler and drier air will push into the area with the FROPA, though being of Pacific origin, temperatures will continue to remain above seasonal normals. It will, however, feel better as SFC dewpoints drop into the mid 40s/lower 50s on SUN. MSTR and humidity are expected to return on MON as the front lifts back north through the area with the approach of the upstream trof, which will also bring rain chances back into the forecast. This feature, which will send another front through the area, will take a more southern trek and could pose a greater risk of SVR convection MON night into early TUE. Nice stretch of dry and more seasonal weather is expected in the wake of this front for the mid week period, which could extend into the weekend though there is some increasing model spread to contend with in regard to rain prospects as early as THU night. 13 MARINE... A light to moderate onshore flow will continue today as surface high pressure off the southeast coast ridges across the northern Gulf of Mexico. A cold front will cross the coastal waters late tonight into early Sunday, bringing a low chance for showers and thunderstorms, with offshore flow developing in its wake. Winds will veer back to the southeast by Monday as surface high pressure moves east. Rain chances will increase again Monday into Tuesday as another front moves into the area. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 86 56 80 59 / 30 60 0 10 LCH 83 63 82 65 / 20 40 10 10 LFT 86 67 80 65 / 10 40 10 10 BPT 83 62 82 66 / 40 30 10 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ AVIATION...07