825 
FXUS64 KMEG 271119
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
619 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

.UPDATE...Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 522 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020/ 

GOES-16 Satellite imagery shows mostly high clouds across the 
region, which has been enough to keep temperatures quite a bit 
warmer than what was anticipated. With observed temperatures a few
degrees warmer than forecast, I adjusted temperatures upwards a 
few degrees. A low pressure system is analyzed over western OK 
with the associated warm front stretching into southern MO and 
southern KY. Forcing from the front has sparked isolated WAA 
showers across southeastern AR, southwestern TN, and northwestern 
MS. POPS were adjusted to account for the isolated showers that 
are possible over the aforementioned area over the next couple of 
hours. Observations show gusty winds from the south-southwest 
gusting up to 20kts across the region. 

The main headline over the next 24 hours will be the very warm 
temperatures that are expected. Once again, high temperatures 
have been raised by several degrees as strong WAA will usher in an
unseasonably warm and humid airmass from the south-southeast.
Temperatures are already trending much warmer than anticipated. 
Therefore I took into account consistency, EURO MOS/GFS MOS which
did very well yesterday, and the fact that we have a strong 
southerly flow when adjusting temperatures. Highs are expected to
once again reach the low 80s to near 90 across the Mid-South. 

On Saturday, the strong ridge that has been over eastern CONUS 
will begin to push east as a trough ejects out of the Rockies with
a low pressure system stacking ahead of it. The low will deepen 
and become a mature wave as it pushes east-northeast across the 
Upper-Midwest. A cold front will stretch from the Upper Midwest 
and into the Deep South which will be the focus of our weather on 
Saturday. Isolated showers and storms will be possible far out 
ahead of the front Saturday morning/early afternoon. The main line
of storms will develop along the cold front Saturday evening and 
into early Sunday morning. As the front moves through, instability
will be at it's highest with 1000-1500 MLCAPE, conditionally to 
absolutely unstable lapse rates, and STA in the 1-8 range across 
the region. A strong 35-50kt LLJ is also expected with 60-75kts of
bulk shear. The SPC has upgraded most of the area to a Slight 
risk which covers most of western TN and northern MS. Everyone 
else is in a Marginal risk. Damaging winds and hail are the 
primary threats as this will likely be a more linear event. 
However, brief short lived tornadoes can't be ruled out. Highs 
will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s with lows in the 50s and 60s. 

Cooler temperatures will usher in behind the cold front with highs
in the low to mid 70s. High pressure will begin to build over the
area on Sunday but will be short lived as our next system moves 
in Monday night. Guidance is in better agreement on next week's
early week system which will bring showers and storms to the Mid-
South Monday night and into Tuesday. Temperatures will be slightly
below to near normal for the start of next week. 

KRF

.AVIATION...12Z TAFs

Breezy South wind 10-15kt with gusts to 25 kt is expected over the
next 24-30 hrs along with periods of LLWS. 2000 ft winds are
expected to be in the 40-45kt range. MVFR cigs are expected at the
end of the TAF period at both JBR and MEM before rain and
thunderstorms move into the areas. 

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$