968 FXUS64 KLCH 270458 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1158 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020 .AVIATION... MVFR/IFR ceilings at area TAF sites will continue through the early morning hours with patchy MVFR possible near sunrise. Light to moderate southerly flow tonight with winds expected to increase after sunrise Friday as a deepening low over eastern Colorado tightens the pressure gradient across the region. Ceilings should improve between 14Z and 16Z with VFR expected for the rest of Friday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 955 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020/ DISCUSSION... Inherited grids/zones look in good shape as is per obs/trends... thus no update is needed this evening. 25 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020/ DISCUSSION... Wx map shows weak high pressure ridge across the Gulf, with light south to southeast winds across the region. Radar show no echos and visible satellite shows clear skies across most of the area, with some fair weather cumulus developing across SE TX. Temperatures this this afternoon are in the mid to upper 80s. Temperatures may sneak a couple of degrees higher and may see near 90 across Inland SE TX/C LA before the afternoon heating is done. Later this evening, expect the low level cloudiness and perhaps patchy fog to return near the daybreak hours Friday. The wind pattern aloft is dominated by high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico extending its influence across the Southern Gulf states, which is expected to continue through Friday. Thus, continuing subsidence and a light humid flow off the Gulf will continue temperatures some 15 to 20 degrees above normal through Friday. By late Friday into Saturday, a digging shortwave across the Western U.S. will lift northeast, which will be enough to erode the mid/upper level high a bit to allow for a cold frontal passage. With this will come scattered to perhaps numerous showers and thunderstorms just ahead and along the frontal passage, mainly across Inland SE TX/C LA late Saturday morning into the afternoon. Severe threat looks to remain north of the region at this time. SPC has Day 3 outlook with the southern edge of a marginal risk across the northern tier parishes/counties of C LA/Inland SE TX. Rainfall from this event is looking less as well, only expecting 0.10-0.25 of an inch across C LA/Inland SE TX, with much lesser amounts further south. Lower dewpoints and slightly cooler air behind the front is expected, but still looking for temperatures to remain slightly above normal. For Monday into next week, a slow warming trend will commence for Monday and Tuesday. The next shortwave, chance of showers and thunderstorms with cold frontal passage is expected late Monday evening into early Tuesday morning, followed by cooler air for Wednesday. A little higher confidence today, as the 12z GFS/ECMWF are in better agreement with this. DML MARINE... Surface high pressure off the southeast coast will ridge across the northern Gulf of Mexico through Friday, allowing light to moderate south to southwest flow to continue. A cold front is expected to bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, with offshore flow developing Saturday night into Sunday behind the front. At this time, winds look to remain Small Craft Advisory criteria. Winds will veer back to the southeast by early next week as surface high pressure moves east. DML CLIMATE... A few high temperature records could be tied or broken this afternoon and Friday. For reference, the following table shows record highs for today and Friday at our 5 climate sites: Record highs: Today Friday Alexandria 91 (1907) 91 (1907) Lake Charles 87 (1910) 90 (1910) Lafayette 88 (1907) 87 (1910) New Iberia 85 (2012) 85 (2011) Beaumont 86 (1928) 85 (2016) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 67 88 67 86 / 0 0 0 50 LCH 69 85 70 84 / 0 0 0 30 LFT 69 86 71 87 / 0 0 0 10 BPT 70 84 71 83 / 0 0 0 40 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ AVIATION...26