657 
FXUS63 KTOP 260910
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
410 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020

A surface low is moving over the CWA this morning, riding along a 
frontal boundary that is draped across the area. The front should
move to the south of the area and stall in southern portions of 
Kansas today as the low moves through Missouri. A deck of low 
status clouds has been moving into northern Kansas behind the 
surface boundary early today. The stratus will likely hold over 
the area north of the front through at least midday when several 
high resolution models show lifting of clouds heights and gradual 
scattering out of some cloud cover. Light northerly winds and 
cloud cover will work to limit warming a bit today with 
temperatures not expected to be as warm as yesterday in most 
locations. Highs look to top out in the mid and upper 50s near the
Nebraska border, gradually increasing toward southeastern Kansas
where highs could again reach the low 70s this afternoon.

Tonight, thunderstorms, some severe, are possible south of 
Interstate 70. A nocturnal jet will interact with the stalled 
boundary to provide ascent over the area. Models are showing 
elevating instability generally in the range of 1000 to 2000 J/kg of 
MUCAPE near and south of Interstate 35 where the best chance for 
severe thunderstorms will be located. Shear values also look 
impressive with some models suggesting over 50 kts of effective bulk 
shear. Everything combined, storms will be capable of large hail, 
especially near and south of I-35. Heavy rainfall is also possible 
with any thunderstorm as precipitable water values of
approximately 1.0 to 1.3 inches will approach climatological 
records.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020

A strong system is set to impact the area Friday night and Saturday.

Tomorrow, a highly amplified upper trough will move toward the Four 
Corners region. A lee side surface system will strengthen in 
response, and move out into Kansas late in the day. The 
previously mentioned surface boundary will remain in the area and 
will likely push slightly to the north as a warm front. A moist 
and unstable airmass will be in place near and south of the front.
Models again show MUCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg with around 60 kts 
of effective bulk shear Friday night. Thunderstorms are expected 
to develop late in the day and impact the area mainly during the 
late evening and overnight hours. The exact position of the 
surface front will help determine the most likely area for strong 
to severe storms. It currently appears that locations south of 
I-70 have the most likely chance to experience storms capable of 
large hail and damaging wind. A small tornado threat also exists, 
especially along the front.

The deepening surface low will work its way into southern Nebraska 
on Saturday. Very strong winds should be expected through the day given
the strong nature of the system. PoPs decrease during the day 
before some wrap-around precip is possible late Saturday, 
especially in northern Kansas. Dry weather and much calmer 
conditions can then be expected on Sunday as a surface ridge 
builds into the region. However, the break from active weather 
will be brief as yet another system looks to bring rain back to
the CWA early next week. No severe weather is anticipated with 
that system at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2020

High clouds continue through the overnight hours ahead of an
approaching cold front. Stratus is expected to drop south along
and behind the boundary, but models have delayed the arrival to 
the morning hours. IFR cigs can be expected at MHK while TOP/FOE
may keep MVFR conditions. These should lift into the afternoon,
although cloudy skies likely remain as the boundary stalls over
the area. Winds should remain light, but will turn from the NE to
the N/NW early in the period, then back to the NE late. There is
also a chance for rain late in the evening, but this may be after
06Z Thursday, so have left out of TAFs for now.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Teefey
LONG TERM...Teefey
AVIATION...Picha