692 FXUS64 KLCH 252329 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 629 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2020 .AVIATION... VFR conditions will continue through this evening with S/SE winds of 5-10 knots. IFR ceilings will push inland during the 3Z-6Z timeframe along with areas of fog. Some TEMPO LIFR visibility restrictions due to fog will be possible from 09Z-13Z. Conditions will improve to MVFR/VFR across the region by mid-morning Thursday with mostly clear skies expected during the afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 314 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2020/ DISCUSSION... Wx map shows much weaker pressure gradient today, resulting in light south to south-southwest winds along the I-10 corridor to the coast, light and variable to calm across inland SE TX/C LA. Main reason for this is a weak frontal boundary just north of the region. This boundary not producing any precip or cloudiness for that matter, as radar is clean and visible satellite shows only fair weather cumulus. Only depiction is the slightly lower dewpoints north of the boundary. Temperatures this afternoon are in the mid to upper 80s, which is expected to continue for the next couple of hours. The wind pattern aloft is dominated by high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico extending its influence across the Southern Gulf states, which is expected to continue through Friday. Thus, continuing subsidence and a light humid flow off the Gulf will continue temperatures some 15 to 20 degrees above normal through Friday. By late Friday into Saturday, a digging shortwave across the Western U.S. will lift northeast, which will be enough to erode the mid/upper level high a bit to allow for a cold frontal passage. With this will come scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms just ahead and along the frontal passage late Saturday morning into the afternoon. Severe threat looks to remain north of the region at this time. SPC has 15% Day 4 outlook across NE LA/MS along and north of I-20. Rainfall from this event is looking less as well, only expecting a quarter to possibly one half inches across inland SE TX/C LA, with much lesser amounts further south. Not looking as robust of a temperature drop behind the front as we previously expected, but still more tolerable temperatures. For Monday into next week, a slow warming trend will commence for Monday and Tuesday. The next shortwave, chance of showers and thunderstorms with cold frontal passage is expected Tuesday afternoon and evening, followed by cooler air for Wednesday. This is low confidence, as the GFS/ECMWF greatly diverge in solutions by this point. DML MARINE... Surface high pressure off the southeast coast will ridge across the northern Gulf of Mexico through the week. This will allow for a light to moderate south to southwest flow to continue. A cold front is expected to bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, with offshore developing by Saturday night behind the front. Not expecting a moderate to strong offshore flow event, thus not anticipating Small Craft Advisories at this time. DML && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 61 89 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 66 86 68 85 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 66 88 69 86 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 67 85 69 84 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ AVIATION...26