832 FXUS63 KIND 250716 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 315 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2020 .UPDATE... The SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM and LONG TERM sections have been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2020 High pressure will settle over the area today and tonight and bring dry and warmer weather to central Indiana. Then, rain will return late Thursday and stick around through much of the weekend before ending Saturday night. Thunderstorms will also be possible at times with strong storms possible on Saturday. Heavy rain and flooding will also be possible. After that, dry and cooler weather is in store under the influence of high pressure Sunday through Monday night. Finally more rain showers are possible by next Tuesday as a low pressure system moves south of the area. && .NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/... Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2020 Models in good agreement that high pressure will provide dry and warmer weather today. Model rh time sections were showing a dry column today which will allow for plenty of sunshine. In addition, winds will become southwest to near 10 knots. This lends good confidence that temperatures will reach the 60s, for the first time in awhile, per the blend. Will see some patchy fog this morning as skies have cleared and winds have become light to calm. Will make a mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and Weather Story. && .SHORT TERM /Thursday through Friday night/... Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2020 Heavy rain and times, flooding and thunderstorms will be the main concerns in the short. Models in reasonable agreement that an upper trough will move over the southwestern states which will result in fast southwest flow aloft and a cold front to drop southeast across central Indiana Thursday night. This front will stall near the Ohio river as flow becomes parallel to the front. Deep moisture, 40 plus knot low level jet, powerful upper jet dynamics and waves in the upper flow will support widespread rain showers and heavy rain at times Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. 305K Isentropic lift, a roaring upper jet stream and deep moisture will support additional widespread activity through Friday night. More heavy rain will be possible at times and thus flooding will certainly be a possibility, especially over southeastern sections, where moderate flooding occurred early this week. WPC suggests near 2 inches of storm total rainfall is possible through Friday night. Embedded thunderstorms per weak instability will also allow for isolated higher rain amounts. Gulf inflow supports well above normal temperatures in the 60s and lower 70s Thursday. With the front near the Ohio River, look for a sharp temperature gradient on Friday. However, even northern sections will be several degrees above normal per the blend. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2020 More unsettled weather is likely on Saturday as a cold front moves in from the west and combines with the strong jet stream, low level jet, deep moisture and warm sector instability. Surface base CAPEs 500-1000 J/K combined with the kinematics would suggest a few storms could be strong or even severe on Saturday. Convection will be ending from west to east Saturday night as the front moves through. Then, the period of Sunday through Monday night looks dry and cooler under the influence of high pressure. Low confidence in more showers by Tuesday as a system moves over the South. && .AVIATION /Discussion for 250600z TAF issuance/... Issued at 1249 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2020 Could see low clouds and/or fog develop over the sites over the next few hours. While there are some MVFR clouds around, they are just in pockets at this point. Based on forecast soundings, think patchy MVFR to IFR fog development is the more likely option. Thus will include MVFR vsbys prevailing starting soon with a tempo IFR drop within a couple hours of daybreak. Will still carry a scattered lower cloud deck to show the potential there. All sites should improve to VFR by midmorning. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MK NEAR TERM...MK SHORT TERM...MK LONG TERM....MK AVIATION...CP