375 FXUS61 KBTV 231949 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 349 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A coastal low pressure system passing just southeast of southern New England will bring accumulating snow this afternoon through the early overnight hours. Several inches of accumulation are likely, especially across south- central Vermont. Quieter but cloudy conditions are expected Tuesday with some morning drizzle possible, followed by more unsettled weather for Wednesday through the end of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 348 PM EDT Monday...Winter weather advisories remain in effect until 4 AM Tuesday for Rutland, Windsor, Orange Caledonia counties & Essex counties in NY and VT for accumulating snowfall. Overall, very little changes made to going forecast other than to increase snowfall amounts slightly given latest trends in 12z suite of guidance. Still looking at highest snowfall totals across Rutland, Windsor and Orange counties in VT and southern Essex county in NY with between 3-5 inches, locally up to 6 across the high terrain. Elsewhere east of the Green Mountains 1-4 inches are expected. Snowfall amounts dwindle the further north and west you head, with a dusting to 2 inches across much of northern New York & the northern Champlain Valley. Radar shows some bright banding across the Capital District in Albany's area, but expect most of this melting hail to remain south as temperatures have trended slightly cooler than originally anticipated across southern VT. Additionally, surface observations should the potential for some briefly heavy snow with 1/2-1 mile visibilities currently being reported across the North Country. Current road surface temperatures remain above freezing, thanks to the high March snow, but as the sun begins to set road surface may cool enough for sticking snow. Soundings indicate that areas that are still unsaturated (i.e. Champlain Valley) should quickly wet bulb as steadier precipitation arrives in the next couple hours. This should change any rain that may fall quickly over to snow. Once snow begins it should remain throughout the duration of this event, which will begin to move out of the area shortly after midnight. As snowfall begins to come to an end, soundings continue to show that moisture will dry out of the DGZ and low level clouds could produce the potential for some light freezing drizzle. Have continued mention of this in the HWO and winter weather advisories. The main timeframe for this would be before 12z. A light glaze of ice may be possible on untreated surfaces. After 12z, low level moisture continues to diminish as drier air works its way in. While conditions will remain cloudy through the first part of the day Tuesday, temperatures will warm to near seasonable levels in the upper 30s to low 40s. Skies should clear by mid afternoon with a quiet evening in store as ridging briefly builds in. Overnight lows will drop into the mid to upper 20s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 348 PM EDT Monday...Models have trended towards a much drier scenario for our area Wednesday and Wednesday night. Low pressure system stays well south of the benchmark, and will just have a chance for some light snow in our most Southern zones during this timeframe. Low will slowly exit eastward Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Maximum temperatures will warm into the upper 30s to upper 40s on Wed, then drop back down into the 20s on Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 348 PM EDT Monday...A weaker low pressure system will pass north of our region Thursday, bringing more chances for precipitation late in the day Thursday and early Thursday night. Though models are not in very good agreement from Friday onward, the pattern appears to remain active with several systems impacting the north country. The ECMWF is depicting a better organized and stronger low to move west of our area Saturday night into Sunday. Right now it looks like we would have some rain with this system initially then changing to snow before the precipitation ends. Some quieter weather will prevail for early next week. Temperatures will be close to seasonal normals through the next 8 days. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 18Z Tuesday...Mix of VFR/MVFR & IFR as snowfall begins to overspread the region. Ceilings should be remain mostly VFR through 00z with main reductions to visibilities down to 1-2 SM. As precipitation exits early Tuesday morning, low level moisture will remain with lingering MVFR/IFR clouds with potential for drizzle/freezing drizzle before 12z. Ceilings should lift to MVFR/VFR towards 18z. South/southeast winds from the Champlain Valley eastward between 10-15 kt and gusts 22-28kts. Elsewhere, winds will generally be less than 10 kts from the ESE. Outlook... Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Chance RA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN, Chance RA. Thursday: VFR. Slight chance RA, Slight chance SHRA. Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for VTZ004-007- 010>012-018-019. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ034. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LaRocca NEAR TERM...LaRocca SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...LaRocca