798 
FXUS63 KOAX 231140
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
640 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020

.Summary:

An active weather pattern will continue with periodic
precipitation chances through the work week. Outside of some
patchy, dense fog this morning, no impactful weather is
anticipated. High temperatures will be near normal with the 
exception being Wednesday when readings could warm to above 
normal. 

.Today:

A weak surface front which has stalled over central NE early this
morning will dissipate today in response to the deepening of a lee
trough over the High Plains. To the east of that boundary, weak
warm/moist advection has fostered widespread low clouds and areas
of fog. The fog could linger into mid morning across portions of
southeast NE with the low clouds attempting to decrease from west
to east across the area this afternoon. High temperatures will be
modulated by the timing and extent of clearing with readings
generally in the upper 40s to lower to mid 50s.

.Tonight and Tuesday:

A shortwave trough currently moving onto the southern CA coast
will progress through KS/OK and into the mid MO Valley. Increased
forcing for ascent associated with that system will promote the
development of showers and thunderstorms across KS tonight. The
northern fringe of that activity will overspread portions of 
southeast NE and southwest IA late tonight into Tuesday morning.
Warmest temperatures (i.e., around 60) on Tuesday will be across 
our western counties where clouds will diminish with lower to mid
50s in the east.

.Wednesday:

A low-amplitude disturbance will progress through the northern
Plains, encouraging the equatorward advance of a surface cold
front through the mid MO Valley. Rain showers are possible along
and behind the front with the potential for a few thunderstorms 
on Wednesday afternoon over far eastern NE and southwest IA. 
Highs will range from mid to upper 60s over southeast NE and 
southwest IA to lower 50s behind the front across northeast NE.

.Thursday into the weekend:

The primary feature of interest during the latter half of the week
is a midlevel trough which will progress through the southwestern
U.S. and into the Great Plains. While there continues to be 
considerable model differences in the timing and intensity of the 
trough, the best precipitation chances currently appear to be from
Thursday night into Friday night with drier conditions by the 
weekend. Highs in the 40s on Thursday will warm into the 50s by
Friday into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020

Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions (cloud bases 300 to 1000 ft AGL & 
visibility 1 to 5 SM) will continue over the region through 15Z 
today. Ceilings and visibilities should improve slowly between 15Z
and 21Z today, with most locations transitioning to MVFR over this
timeframe. A brief period of VFR conditions is possible between 
21Z today and 03Z Wednesday, then ceilings and visibilities should
crash back into the IFR/LIFR category after 03Z. A few rain 
showers and a couple isolated thunderstorms are possible after 09Z
Wednesday. Impacts at the TAF sites (KOMA, KLNK and KOFK) should 
mainly occur before 18Z today and after 06Z Wednesday, and will be
largely due to lower ceilings.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for NEZ068-078-
     088>093.

IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Albright