745 FXUS64 KLCH 231134 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 634 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020 .DISCUSSION... 23/12Z TAF Issuance. && .AVIATION... Considerable low level moisture continues to spread inland on south winds, resulting in MVFR-IFR cigs acrs the area. Cigs have been varying some, but expect a gradual improvement to VFR by midday. A few isolated showers will be possible today, but coverage should be minimal so did not insert VC mention at this time. Expect cigs lowering during the evening, settling in the low MVFR or IFR category overnight. Elevated winds (~4-8 KT) have limited fog development early this morning, and expect this will be the case again tonight. 24 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020/ SYNOPSIS... A weak upper level disturbance in the zonal flow aloft will allow for a slight chance of showers today into Tuesday. By mid week a strong upper level ridge will build across the region with no chance for rain and much above temperatures making things very warm and muggy. The next significant chance for rain won't be until the weekend as the ridge weakens enough to allow a cold front to move through. Rua DISCUSSION... The old warm frontal boundary has moved up into northern Louisiana and northeast Texas. This is allowing southerly flow off the Gulf to provide a warm and muggy start to the day. So far wind speeds at the surface and above the surface have been strong enough to limit any fog formation, and this is expected for the remainder of the night with any fog that does form staying patchy in nature. Southerly flow bringing in the warm and muggy conditions today could also bring in a few streamer type showers off the Gulf and diurnal daytime heating activity further inland as a weak impulse in the zonal flow aloft moves through. A short wave and associated weak surface low and boundary will move out of the Rockies and across the Southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. This system will help increase southerly winds that again will preclude any widespread fog from forming tonight. The frontal boundary will have a tough time making to the forecast area as upper level ridging begins to build in from central old Mexico. Therefore, only a few showers may clip the northern portions of the forecast area on Tuesday. Once the short wave moves off to the east, the main weather story will be the strong upper level ridge that will build across the Gulf of Mexico and into the forecast area. Increasing heights, warming 85H temperatures, and low level southerly flow will combine to provide much above normal temperatures from Wednesday into Friday. Low level southerly flow will bring muggy conditions, but mid level capping should keep any shower activity from forming. Ridge looks to shift off to the southeast and break down just enough to allow a weak surface cold front to move into the forecast area over the weekend, to bring the next chance for significant shower activity and bring temperatures back closer to seasonal norms. Rua MARINE... High pressure at the surface will be located off the southeast coast and ridge across the northern Gulf of Mexico and into the coastal waters for the next several days. This will allow a persistent southerly flow to occur. Wind speeds will increase some later tonight and Tuesday as a surface low is expected to move across the Southern Plains. However, at this time wind speeds look to be around 15 knots or less, and therefore will not need small craft exercise caution wording. A cold front looks to move into the coastal waters over the weekend to provide a chance for showers and offshore winds. Rua && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 82 63 82 62 / 20 0 20 10 LCH 80 68 80 66 / 10 10 10 0 LFT 82 68 82 68 / 10 0 0 0 BPT 80 68 81 66 / 20 10 10 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ AVIATION...24