741 
FXUS63 KFGF 211950
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
250 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020

Cloudy conditions south of the international border area continue
with some occasional flurries occuring. These flurries are being
supported by synoptic lift generated by an upper level shortwave
moving across the Northern Plains today. As this shortwave is
ejected to the east Sunday flurries chances will come to an end.
Snow accumulation from this snow will be under half an inch as
much of the snow is not reaching the surface thanks to dry air.

Surface high pressure moves into the Northern Plains on Sunday and
brings an end to the snow chances. While most ensemble and
deterministic model guidance has the snow out Sunday there are a 
few members that have some very lift flurries over parts of 
northwest Minnesota. So there is a small chance for snow on 
Sunday. This will be a warmer day with temperatures over the 
fresher snow pack just above freezing and temperatures over the 
older snowpack in the upper 30s to low 40s. This should help melt
continue in the southern valley leading to continued river rises.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020

The main stories for the long term period will be a general
warming trend with a cold period following a midweek storm.

High pressure and sunnier skies on Monday will lead to slightly
warmer day on Monday which could be a good melt day across the Red
River Basin. The pattern begins to change Tuesday with a series of
shortwaves leading to chances for precipitation. This could lead
to a variety of precipitation types as the lower levels of the
atmosphere are expected to cool faster than higher levels. This
could lead to a wintry mix and maybe event some period off
freezing rain. This will vary widely based on location and time of
day. For the southern Red River Valley the precipitation will be 
mostly rain with snow only possible at the coldest parts of the 
overnight hours. Farther north snow will be more predominant and 
may mix with a variety of precipitation types. The predictability
for this this period remains very low as deterministic and 
ensemble models remain very volatile. For example since the last 
forecast cycle sent out Saturday morning the main surface low has 
shifted south in most model guidance significantly lowering QPF. 
Until this flashlight comes to an end there will be low 
confidence in determining this forecast based on our suite of 
model guidance. 

Much colder air Wednesday and Thursday should slow or stop melt 
in the north with high temperatures struggling to get above
freezing. In the southern valley high temperatures will remain
above freezing allow melt to continue, but it will be slower as
highs might only get into the mid 30s. Temperatures will continue
to warm Friday into the weekend with highs near to above average 
allowing for melt to continue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020

VFR expected to continue today with some MVFR conditions due to
lower ceilings moving in late tonight into tomorrow morning. Winds
generally around 10 knots with some higher gusts, especially
around FAR up to around 20 knots. Some snow showers may occur at
FAR this afternoon, but should be very light and have little to no
impact on visibility with only a dusting of accumulation. 


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...NC