037 
FXUS64 KMRX 181843
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Morristown TN
243 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2020

.SHORT TERM (Today through tomorrow)...
Shortwave, and associated precipitation is currently moving out of 
Middle Tennessee towards Eastern Kentucky along a stationary 
boundary near the Ohio River Valley. In the Eastern Tennessee Valley 
a warm front is stationed to the south and we're seeing mid/low 
level and high level clouds blanketing most of the area. In the 
northern portions of the Valley, further away from the influence of 
the front or the shortwave, we're seeing some breaks in the clouds 
allowing temperatures to rise a little bit more than areas further 
south. Currently (early afternoon) the Tri-Cities is warmer than 
Knoxville or Chattanooga.

Looking at the precipitation across Middle Tennessee, expect it to 
continue on it's northeastward trajectory. It may briefly impact the 
northern Cumberland Plateau, but expect most of the precipitation to 
stay out of the Valley. Better shear and environment exists across 
Middle TN and Eastern Kentucky for storm development so am expecting 
the strongest storms to remain out of the Valley as well.

Convective allowing models are still trying to initiate some 
isolated storms in the Eastern Valley through the afternoon. Believe 
they will have a hard time forming/maintaining with the extensive 
cloud coverage over the southern portions of the valley, but as they 
move further north into a sunnier environment we could see an uptick 
in coverage.

Expect a break in storms late this evening before the frontal 
boundary sags further to the south and brings with is some isolated 
showers to the northern locations. With the increased dew points and 
potential for some additional rainfall in locations we stand a 
decent chance to see another round of fog overnight/early tomorrow 
morning.

Expect another warm day tomorrow with some more sunshine over the 
area.

ABM

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)...
At the start of this period strong southerly flow will be ongoing 
across the forecast area. A deep upper level trough will be 
translating across the Plains and Midwest. A trailing cold front 
will be extending from the Great Lakes to the Texas Panhandle. Low 
level moisture will advect along and ahead of the frontal boundary. 
As a result very warm overnight temperatures will occur early Friday 
morning. In addition, rainfall chances will begin increase by early 
Friday morning through the remainder of the day. By Friday afternoon 
showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread with about 3/4 
of an inch or rainfall possible. 

Cooler air will gradually move over the region for the weekend in 
the wake of the front. Saturday will be mostly dry as surface high 
pressure builds over the northeast U.S. It will be short lived, 
however, as the next shortwave races across the southwest U.S. 
Saturday night. Expect the coldest overnight temperatures over the 
past several weeks to occur Sunday morning.

Rain chances will begin to increase again on Sunday in association 
with the aforementioned shortwave. Clouds, afternoon rainfall and 
limited sunshine will limit daytime high temperatures in the mid 50s 
to lower 60s. 

The spring-like pattern will provide periods of dry weather and 
warming temperatures mixed with periods of showers and perhaps some 
rumbles of thunder through the middle of next week.

AC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Storms across Middle TN look to continue to move NE across the
area, likely missing the airports. Some isolated storms may form
over the Valley, but coverage is expected to be sparse. Depending
on where rain falls, we can expect to see another round of fog
overnight, although somewhat less duration and intensity compared
to fog this morning.

ABM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             62  78  64  72  53 /  30  30  30 100  80 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  61  78  65  72  51 /  30  40  20 100  80 
Oak Ridge, TN                       61  77  64  72  50 /  40  50  30 100  70 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              56  77  61  72  49 /  40  40  10  90  80 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$