813 FXUS64 KLUB 181746 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1246 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020 .AVIATION... VFR conditions will continue for the much of the day. Storm chances will increase this evening, initially at the western terminals around 00Z, and at KCDS 2-3 hours later. One or more rounds of convection, potentially strong to severe, could affect the terminals through the late evening hours before shifting to the east early Thursday morning. Any direct storm impact could bring sub-VFR conditions along with gusty and erratic winds. A strengthening westerly LLJ could also provide a period of LLWS early Thursday before surface winds increase. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 644 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020/ AVIATION... Stratus/fog has cleared KLBB and KPVW, leaving VFR early this morning. However, LIFR conditions were still in place and KCDS, and should linger through 14-15Z before VFR returns there. Once that happens, VFR will be the rule at all of the terminals through the day. Storm chances will increase this evening, initially at the western terminals around 00Z, and at KCDS 2-3 hours later. One or more rounds of convection, potentially strong to severe, could affect the terminals through the late evening hours before shifting to the east early Thursday morning. Any direct storm impact could bring sub-VFR conditions along with gusty and erratic winds. Pockets of lower clouds could linger into early Thursday morning, but will quickly be scoured out by drier westerly winds. A strengthening westerly LLJ could also provide a period of LLWS early Thursday before surface winds increase. UPDATE... We have further trimmed the west side of the Dense Fog Advisory as the stratus/fog gradually erodes eastward. Areas of dense fog could linger for the next 1-3 hours over our far northeast zones before diminishing altogether. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 424 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020/ SHORT TERM... One more day of strong/severe convection appears to be in the cards for West Texas, primarily late this afternoon through the late evening hours. We are currently in a lull, between an exiting shortwave trough and and our next disturbance quickly approaching the Baja California Sur. The former, which brought plenty of convection to the local area yesterday, was now driving a MCS which stretched from southwest MO through eastern OK and much of North Texas early this morning. In the wake of this wave, lingering low-level moisture and wet grounds have supported widespread dense fog over all but the western counties earlier this morning. However, this shallow stratus/fog has been gradually eaten away as the surface flow has veered, with the widespread dense fog now confined primarily to the south-central and southeast Texas Panhandle. We have trimmed the Dense Fog Advisory (DFA) to account for this, and will likely have to trim the western extent of the DFA further over the coming hours as the warm front continues to lift northward. The DFA currently ends at 13Z, though our far northeast corner, around Childress, could see fog linger another hour or two beyond that. Outside of this early day fog, plenty of filtered sunshine and southwest, backing to southerly, winds will fuel a nice warm up through the middle part of the day. Highs will peak in the 70s to near 80 degrees. Southerly winds will gradually increase through the afternoon hours as the pressure falls in the lee of the southern Rockies in response to the strengthening southwest flow aloft and approaching shortwave. Low-level moisture will be drawn back into northwest Texas, and with dewpoints rising into the upper 50s and lower 60s over the Rolling Plains by late in the day, modest instability will develop. Lift from the approaching wave should spur the development of isolated to scattered convection which will move into our western zones late this afternoon and early this evening. As it encounters the better instability, the severe weather risk will rise. Early on, an isolated supercell or two could form. Low-level flow/shear won't be particularly strong, so large hail would be the greatest threat with this activity, though damaging winds and perhaps a limited tornado risk could unfold if any residual boundaries can be utilized to enhance the low-level wind fields. After this initial activity, a greater shot of lift will follow with the introduction of a Pacific front and a portion of the western trough pivoting through the southern Rockies. This will likely provide another round of convection, which should quickly grow upscale and race from west-to-east across the area through the mid-late evening hours. By this time, the low-level wind fields will strengthen considerably, so the evolving LEWP could support embedded vortices and the risk of brief tornadoes, in addition to strong outflow winds and hail. The convection should quickly shift to the east of the FA early Thursday morning as modestly cooler and much drier air overspread the region. LONG TERM... Gusty westerly winds will kick off the extended on Thursday, as the storm system and deepening surface low spread across the central High Plains. It appears most of the South Plains region will see winds rise up to advisory levels, which could also loft some blowing dust, especially considering all the recent rains (which may have helped loosened the top soil). This pattern would typical raise our fire weather concerns too, but the widespread rains of late along with the start of an early season green up should greatly mitigate this threat. Temperatures on Thursday will peak in the 60s and 70s, but much cooler/colder and drier air will spill southward behind the departing storm system Thursday night. Many spots on the Caprock could see a freeze by early Friday, with another freeze likely for most/all of the CWA early Saturday. In addition, highs Friday and Saturday will remain well below normal, only in the 40s and lower 50s. The upper flow will flatten, becoming more zonal through the remainder of the extended. One embedded passing wave over the weekend could bring a slim chance of a shower in the eastern Rolling Plains Saturday night, but the better chances will remain well to our east. A warming trend will close out the forecast, though it could be briefly interrupted by weak surface ridging if the more amplified GFS comes to fruition. Regardless, after we get through tonight, (more typical) drier conditions will prevail for some time for West Texas. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 99/99/28