715 FXUS61 KBTV 170757 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 357 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Periods of light rain and snow are likely this morning, especially across northern New York into parts of central and northern Vermont. A light snow accumulation is possible in the higher terrain, along with gusty south winds. Temperatures by this afternoon will warm into the upper 30s to mid 40s. Slightly cooler and drier weather arrives Wednesday, before more showers and warmer temperatures are expected on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures are expected to warm into the 60s on Friday, before sharply falling back into the 30s for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 333 AM EDT Tuesday...Crnt radar shows pockets of light snow and rain moving acrs northern NY and parts of VT early this morning, with SLK recently down to 2sm in -sn. Expect this initial band of precip to lift north and dissipate over the next 1 to 2 hours. Meanwhile, better dynamics aloft arrive btwn 12-15z this morning, along with a ribbon of enhanced 850 to 500mb rh and weak sfc reflection. This energy/moisture will help in the redevelopment of additional light rain/snow this morning into the early aftn hours. Thermal profiles suggest enough dry air initially for wet bulb cooling to occur with column cooling enough for a period of snow this morning. However, as bl temps warm into the mid/upper 30s by midday, thinking snow will be mainly confined above 2500 feet. A quick dusting to maybe an inch is possible in the 1500 to 2500 foot level this morning, with minimal accumulation in the valleys. Breezy to locally gusty south/southwest winds anticipated, especially btwn 6 AM and noon today, as strong 925mb to 850mb winds of of 45 to 60 knots moves acrs our cwa. Localized gusts to 40 mph possible CPV and 30 to 35 mph SLV/northern dacks. Temps on breezy southerly winds warm into the upper 30s to mid 40s. Tonight, any lingering leftover precip will quickly dissipate by 00z with a dry overnight expected. Lows on modest llvl caa will drop into the upper teens mountains to mid/upper 20s CPV/lower CT River Valley. On Weds...1032mb high pres crests over the region with fast westerly flow aloft. This will result in dry conditions with winds becoming light and trrn driven. Progged 925mb temps in the -3c to -6c range support highs mid 30s to lower 40s depend upon elevation for Weds, which is very close to normal. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 357 AM EDT Tuesday...An active period of weather is expected for the middle to end of the work week with 2 distinct systems to highlight. The first comes late Wednesday night through Thursday as a modest shortwave trough will track west to east through the Northeast. Some differences continue in this mornings guidance as to the northward extent of precipitation, as well as the onset with surface high pressure centered over the Canadian maritimes Thursday morning. Based on the available moisture and modest south/southeast low level flow, feel we'll see precip work across the entire forecast area from the pre- dawn hours through mid-day Thursday before tapering off in the afternoon. Ptype will largely be dominated by boundary layer temps with the wider valleys seeing mainly rain, while elsewhere a rain/snow mix with a dusting to 2 inches of wet snow accumulation is possible through mid-day before surface temps warm into the upper 30s to 40s changing all precip to liquid form by the afternoon. While precip is tapering off in the afternoon, moisture becomes lacking aloft so anything lingering will likely be drizzle, but chances dwindle into the evening with a short break between systems expected. That break in precip lasts only until perhaps midnight before the next round races in along an approaching warm front ahead of low pressure tracking into the Great Lakes. A deep moisture fetch of 3-4 stdDev above normal stretching back to the western GOMEX will support a period of moderate to locally heavy rain through sunrise Friday before a strong low level southwesterly jet of 60kts at 850mb traverses the region post warm frontal passage changing the character of rain to more shower-like through the remainder of the day. Firmly in the warm sector, 925mb temps rise to +10-12C supporting highs well into the 60s area-wide Friday afternoon before a strong cold front brings a return to reality Friday night as temps fall sharply into 20s by Saturday morning. Precip could end as a brief period of snow showers Friday night, with the threat of a flash freeze definitely possible. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 357 AM EDT Tuesday...Quieter conditions return for the weekend into early next week as a 1040mb high entering into the Great Lakes Saturday morning traverses the northeast, centering over the North Country Sunday night and shifting offshore on Monday. The result will be almost nil chances for precip, along with a return of below normal temperatures for the weekend. Daytime highs will largely struggle to warm into the 30s, while overnight lows will range through the teens Saturday night, and teens to 20s Sunday night. With the strongest push of cold air advection coming Sunday morning, we could see some light flurries squeezed out, but for the most part we should see a good deal of sunshine through the period. As the high shifts offshore Monday, developing southerly return flow will warm temps back above normal by the afternoon with highs rebounding nicely into the 40s. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 06Z Wednesday...Changeable taf conditions the next 6 to 18 hours as light precip overspreads the region from southwest to northeast. Expect VFR conditions to trend toward MVFR especially MSS/SLK/MPV by 12z with a mix of rain/snow arriving. Cigs will fall into the MVFR category, while vis ranges in the 2-4sm. Meanwhile, PBG/BTV/RUT will have mainly vfr conditions prevail with brief periods of mvfr cigs/vis possible mid morning as some heavier precip arrives. Conditions improve at all sites by 18z this aftn as steadier precip shifts east and bl temps warm enough to support mainly rain. Gusty south/southwest winds of 10 to 15 gusts 25 to 30 knots expected at BTV/MSS/SLK with SE winds at RUT. Outlook... Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SN, Chance RA. Thursday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance RA, Likely SN. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite RA. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Taber NEAR TERM...Taber SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Taber