417 FXUS63 KLMK 161945 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 345 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2020 .Short Term...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 307 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2020 Latest surface analysis places the surface high over the NE US, a quasi-stationary boundary across the southern Gulf states, and an approaching cold front positioned across the North Central Plains. Deep SW flow will continue to pump moisture from the Pacific and the Gulf over the Ohio Valley. Ahead of the approaching cold front, a weak 5H impulse will join forces with the warm, moist air lifting isentropically north of the aforementioned boundary to our south, resulting in light rain/drizzle for most of the evening. Expect to see more rain than drizzle kick up just ahead and along the cold front, which is progged to pass through the area Tuesday morning. Some light sprinkles may linger behind the front, but dry air aloft behind the front should shut off rain chances by Tuesday afternoon. Light and variable winds this evening will eventually veer NW with FROPA but remain light. Clouds will act as a blanket tonight with Tuesday morning lows in the 40s. A highly modified airmass following the front will allow Tuesday max temps to reach into the 50s. && .Long Term...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2020 Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night... High pressure will continue its retreat toward New England Tuesday night, with cloudy and mild coditions in the light SE flow over the Ohio Valley. A weak shortwave cresting the top of the otherwise flat upper ridge on Wednesday will spread light rain across the region. Look for categorical POPs across all but southern Kentucky by afternoon, but not before temps punch well into the 60s. Wednesday night will be rainy, but unseasonably mild, and a slight chance for embedded thunder will enter the picture with some mid-level destabilization. Thursday through Friday... Periods of showers and storms are expected Thursday into Thursday night as we break solidly into the warm sector. That said, even with decent shear, the sfc-based instability is weak at best and doesn't seem to coincide with any of the better forcing. Therefore the threat for strong/severe storms remains minimal, but non-zero. Cold front finally pushes through on Friday night, bringing an end to the rain chances. Saturday through Monday... Strong high presssure building into the Great Lakes will push another shot of cold air into the Ohio Valley. Saturday appears to be the coldest day with daytime highs stuck in the 40s. Moderating trend begins on Sunday, but with a low-amplitude pattern aloft, we expect the recovery to be slow. The next system will start to take shape over the Plains on Monday, so we'll start to ramp up some low POPs. && .Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 138 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2020 Current satellite shows cirrus blow off from convective activity across W TN with a vast area of MVFR CIGs below. In the past hour, heating has thinned out this lower deck with a few locations scattering out. Confidence is low as to the extent and timing of any VFR conditions this evening, though it is likely to occur. Have covered this uncertainty with TEMPO lines. Otherwise, an approaching cold front will bring -RA and/or -DZ to all TAF sites this evening and overnight accompanied by light and variable winds and gradually lowering CIGs to IFR and potentially LIFR at LEX Tuesday morning. Winds behind the front will veer NW yet remain light. Could also see TEMPO MVFR VIS around sunrise tomorrow morning. Conditions should improve to VFR by Tuesday late afternoon. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...None. && $$ Short Term...CG Long Term...RAS Aviation...CG