266 FXUS64 KMOB 112332 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 632 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020 .NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Thursday night/...No changes in the near term with this package. Still expecting a few showers and maybe a thunderstorm over our far northern areas this evening; however, storms should diminish shortly after sunset as instability reduces. We have noted a few storms capable of maybe gusty winds and maybe some small hail just north of Wilcox county Alabama, but nothing of this magnitude in our area. The remainder of the area will stay dry tonight. The biggest issue will be the potential for fog tonight and possibly dense fog especially near the coast. Current observations show sea fog lingering over Dauphin island and that is expected to slowly push north later tonight into tomorrow morning. High cirrus may limit the northward expanse of the fog. Lows will likely be in the low to mid 60s as temperatures fall to near the dewpoint. Tomorrow, things will remain dry as the upper ridge to our south continues to build. Fog should mix out and retreat back to the coastal waters by mid-morning as temperatures begin to rise. Highs will be in the upper 70s and some areas could see 80 degrees if the sun comes out. BB/03 && .AVIATION... 00Z issuance...Currently widespread VFR conditions will prevail into the early evening hours. However by midnight, fog and low ceilings will begin to develop along the coast and move inland. VISBYS and CIGS will likely start as LIFR at our coastal areas shortly after midnight and move inland with some instance of VLIFR VISBYS possible. Fog will likely persist through mid-morning before retreating back south. VFR conditions will return by midday with a light south-southwesterly wind around 5 knots. BB/03 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 357 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020/ NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Thursday/...The areas of dense fog that was along the coastal areas has dissipated on and off earlier this afternoon, but will likely return over most of the area this evening and overnight. In fact, it already appears dense fog is becoming more widespread along the immediate coast near Dauphin Island and over southern portions of Mobile Bay, the Mississippi Sound, Perdido Bay and the Gulf waters out to 20 NM so we went ahead and issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the southern portions of Mobile and Baldwin counties. Patchy fog may develop over much of the southern half of the forecast area overnight. Some locally dense fog will again be possible over the interior late tonight, but model guidance is somewhat up in the air with just when/where dense fog may develop over inland areas. Will not issue a Dense Fog Advisory for those areas at this time, but one may be required for portions of the area overnight. Any fog that does develop will likely persist into the middle part of Thursday morning. Otherwise, a few isolated showers and storms possible across the area during the late afternoon and evening hours today, especially over interior locations where daytime heating and left over decaying storms from the MCS moving into northwestern portions of Alabama at this time. Although there is a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect to our north for the southeast moving MCS at this time, it appears that the system will be weakening as it approaches our northern counties early this evening. In fact, the convection will not only be weakening but mostly dissipating as it nears our CWA. The weakening mid level shortwave energy associated with this feature should be moving east of the forecast area by late evening with chances for showers and storms ending. Ridging aloft increases on Thursday, with no PoPs in forecast at this time. Low temperatures tonight ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s. High temperatures on Thursday expected to be in the upper 70s and lower 80s over interior areas, lower 70s along and near the coast. /12 SHORT TERM /Thursday Night Through Saturday Night/...A shortwave trough continues to swing across the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes region Thursday night into Friday morning before lifting further northeast early in the weekend. Further to the west, a closed upper level low rotates onshore across southern California on Thursday. The low quickly opens up as it moves through the Southwest on Friday and then lifts northeast through the Plains as a shortwave on Saturday. Meanwhile, a ridge in the upper levels builds back into the Gulf through the weekend, which will keep a generally zonal upper level flow in place over the region. The area remains on the western periphery of a surface ridge, which will keep southerly to southwesterly surface winds in place over the region. Thursday night will be dry (rain-wise), but patchy fog will likely set up across the region in the overnight hours again as light southerly winds usher in more moisture. As a front moves and eventually stalls just north of the area on Friday, it will act as a focus for rain showers on Friday afternoon and evening. Of note, we expect very little accumulation from these rain showers. Areas of fog will likely return late Friday night into early Saturday as well. Saturday should be dry with daytime high temperatures topping out in the upper 70s to low 80s, although a few locations could jump into the mid 80s. 07/mb EXTENDED TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...Upper level ridging continues to build into the Gulf and spills into the Southeast through at least the middle part of next week. The upper level low that opens up and lifts through the Plains as a shortwave (mentioned in the short term) will drop another boundary through the northern and central portions of AL/MS overnight Saturday into Sunday. This boundary may lead to another round of light rain showers across the northern portion of the area on Sunday afternoon and evening. As we head into early next week, the unsettled pattern continues as several upper level disturbances slide north of the upper level ridge. This will keep a small chance for rain showers each afternoon, mainly across the northern portion of the area. Afternoon temperatures will be warm with highs topping out in the upper 70s to low 80s for most of the area and some communities even reaching into the mid 80s. As light southerly flow remains in place over the region, the potential for coastal fog will need to be monitored through the extended period. 07/mb MARINE...Areas of dense fog nearshore persisted in some areas today, and has actually become more widespread again near Dauphin Island and over southern Mobile Bay and the near shore Gulf waters. As such, a Marine Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for Mobile Bay, Mississippi Sound, Perdido Bay and the Gulf waters (between Pascagoula and Pensacola)out to 20 NM. A light south to southwesterly flow will prevail through Thursday, becoming more southeast Friday through Monday, and even easterly at times over the weekend. Little change in seas through the forecast period, generally remaining 2 feet or less. /12 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CDT Thursday for ALZ265-266. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CDT Thursday for GMZ630>633-650. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob