588 FXUS63 KIND 111127 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 727 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2020 .UPDATE... The AVIATION Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 344 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2020 A continuing unsettled pattern will bring numerous chances of rain, broken up by brief periods of dry weather, throughout the forecast period. Temperatures will also range from near normal to above normal. && .NEAR TERM /Today/... Issued at 344 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2020 A weak upper wave will be moving through today which will mainly continue the cloud coverage but could also include some light precip. Overnight, light returns have been fairly persistent on radar across northern and central Indiana, but it has been evaporating before reaching the ground, but it wouldn't take much for isolated light rain to fall at some point through the day. Given that this system is rather unorganized and the the models are showing a lack of moisture return to the area, confidence is low on precip and have thus only included a slight chance of sprinkles to the forecast which should end by this evening. Highs today will be in the mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/... Issued at 344 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2020 A more potent system is expected to impact the area starting Thursday with stronger moisture return ahead and along a cold front bringing in rain from the west to southwest with a few rumbles of thunder being possible. Ahead of the front, strong southerly flow is going to bring temperatures well above normal with highs in the mid 60s. At this time, it looks as though precip will start moving in Thursday afternoon to evening and should move out of the area by Friday morning. The models currently have pretty good agreement on the frontal passage leading to more confidence and likely PoPs. Wind gusts nearing 25 kts Thursday night are also expected as the front itself moves through. Behind the front, colder air will push into the area for Friday returning temperatures to near normal. Late Friday night could start to see the effects of a low pressure system lifting from the Rockies towards the Great Lakes region bringing with it an increase in cloud coverage and rain chances in the SW forecast area. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/... Issued at 227 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2020 The upcoming weekend will see a departing trough axis lifting northeast of the region, as the Central CONUS transitions into a quasi-zonal to southwest flow late weekend into early next week. This will allow brief period of anti-cyclonic flow and dry weather. Then late Sat into Sun, with a more zonal look to the longwave pattern, moisture will return and advect northeast across Central Indiana. Broad ridging to our north, might be strong enough to suppress the precip shield further south and maintain a longer period of benign weather for Central Indiana Sat ngt/possibly into Sun morning. Heading into early next week ensembles are in good agreement with seeing a trough strengthening across the far Southwest CONUS, which will amplify the downstream wave and become oriented into a southwest flow for the Ohio Valley. This should open up the western Gulf of Mexico, including a flow of moisture north, and likely bring a chance for some spring thunderstorms to areas east of the Mississippi after Monday. Temps will generally be slightly above seasonal conditions in the upper 50s to at times 60s. && .AVIATION /Discussion for 111200Z TAF Update/... Issued at 724 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2020 Areas of drizzle and mist is keeping VSBYs reduced across the area early this morning, but expect shortly after daybreak this to end with low CIGs lingering around IFR to MVFR conds into mid-morning. Then as some drier air begins to work into the area CIGs should lift solidly to MVFR conds. Winds will remain light and variable at times. Then winds turn southerly late tonight, with CIGs hovering around VFR to MVFR. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KH NEAR TERM...KH SHORT TERM...KH LONG TERM....Beach AVIATION...Beach