079 FXUS65 KFGZ 102138 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 238 PM MST Tue Mar 10 2020 .SYNOPSIS...Expect unsettled weather with periods of rain through Thursday afternoon. Snow levels to climb above 8500-9000 feet. Starting Thursday night, expect increasing shower intensity and coverage as an upper low moves into Arizona. On Friday, snow levels to fall to around 7000 feet by sunrise, with showers continuing through the day. Expect rises on area waterways. A drying trend arrives for the weekend. A strong pacific cold front could impact the northland next Monday and Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... The forecast focus is on the wet weather across northern Arizona through Friday night. Area waterways along and south of the Mogollon Rim are forecast to see slow rises from tonight through Wednesday afternoon, with a second peak forecast for Thursday night-Friday. We are monitoring the need for any flood or flash flood watches or warnings. Satellite imagery shows the upper level low, centered 500 miles west of San Diego this afternoon. The very moist southwest flow across Arizona today has brought passing rain showers, with accumulations generally in the .20 to .40 inch range, though the Oak Creek basin has some .40 to .70 inch amounts. Imagery also shows the subtropical plume has taken on a more SW to NE orientation this afternoon, with very much colder cold tops with rain underneath moving into SW Arizona this afternoon. These features to bring several rounds of rain showers to our area overnight. overnight liquid accumulations are in the .25 to .50 inch range along and south of the Mogollon Rim, with lighter amounts north of there. Wednesday - Moist southwest flow to produce rain showers through the day, with slight chances for afternoon thunderstorms across central land western AZ. Snow levels should rise to the 9000-10,000 foot range. Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon - Still expecting a break in the shower activity, especially north of the Mogollon Rim. Skies could partially clear at some downslope areas in the Little Colorado River valley and along the Utah border. Precip chances increase late thursday afternoon across central Arizona. Thursday evening into Friday - This time frame still looks like the one for the greatest precipitation accumulations. The upper low is shown to be over Yuma Thursday night and tracking east northeastward Friday. Very high subtropical moisture values are shown to be drawn northward into central Arizona and then wrap around the low center as is crosses our state Friday. Model QPF trends are increasing for this period, especially across Yavapai and Gila counties, where an inch plus of rainfall is possible Thursday night. Snow levels are forecast to lower Thursday night and be around 7000-8000 feet by Friday morning. The forecast continues to show less than an inch of snowfall for the high country population centers. Friday night through Sunday - Showers will begin to taper Friday night from west to east as the upper low weakens and moves into New Mexico. Just a slight chance of showers are forecast Saturday, with dry weather Saturday night and Sunday. Breezy southwest winds should develop Sunday afternoon. Monday - Tuesday Models are in decent agreement showing a cold an upper low setting up in the Great Basin for this period. Their could be a strong cold frontal passage across Arizona Monday. The 30-40 percent chances of rain and snow across western Arizona remain in the forecast for Monday. These precip chances increase and spread eastward Tuesday. A winter like week looks to be in store, stay tuned. && .AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Expect periods of rain and high elevation snow over the next 24 hours. Snow levels rising above 9000 feet mean sea level overnight. MVFR/IFR conditions extensive over the higher terrain and in heavier rain/snow showers along and west of a KPGA-KINW-KPAN line with coverage more localized further east. Surface winds generally light. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Expect periods of rain, with snow above at least 9000 feet, through Thursday. Friday through Sunday...Periods of rain and high elevation snow will continue through Saturday. Snow levels will slowly lower to around 7000 feet by Friday morning. Dry and slightly warmer conditions are forecast for Sunday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...DL AVIATION...McCollum FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff