007 FXUS61 KPBZ 091801 CCA AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 201 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warm weather will continue today with increasing cloud cover. Rain will return to the area late tonight through Tuesday. Above average temperature and periodic rain chances are likely through the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Peak heating with increasingly amplified southwesterly flow as the sfc high shifts east will mix gusty, dry wind to the sfc this aftn. The resultant well above normal temperature, lower humidity, and gusty wind will hover near Red Flag criteria for PA. Thus, updated the HWO to highlight fire growth threat this the afternoon. Moisture advection ahead of an approaching shortwave trough and sfc low will increase cloud cover tonight, with PWAT values eventually exceeding the 90th percentile. Increased lift along a 700mb front will push showers through the region late tonight during the early Tuesday morning. The lack of instability and strong forcing aloft will preclude accumulation impacts, with initial precipitation delayed as it overcomes dry air near the sfc. The aforementioned ample cloud cover plus persistent warm advection ahead of the sfc cold front will minimize overnight cooling from loss of sunlight and precipitation onset. Morning low temperature will be well above normal, with some climate sites nearing record high minimum temperature. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The shortwave trough will move across the region and into northern New England through Tuesday, with the sfc low following underneath. The cold front will lag the 700mb frontal push, arriving into eastern OH during the late morning hours and advancing east through the day, weakening as the sfc low center shifts farther north and the upper trough weakens. Additional showers will develop along this boundary, aided by closer proximity to the trough axis. Depending on heating/recovery, isolated thunderstorms can't be ruled out for the aftn when the trough axis will approach region, with cooling temperature aloft potentially unlocking weak instability. Again, probability is low and too low for mention, with the lack of strong shear further dampening its likelihood. Sfc high pressure will develop Tuesday night into Wednesday morning in the wake this exiting system, helping to dissipate lingering shower activity. Another but weaker shortwave will traverse the region Wednesday aftn/eve and provide another chance for rain. However, weaker lift and hardly any sfc feature will keep activity scattered and accumulations low. Lack of strong CAA behind Tuesday's cold front and quasi-zonal flow aloft will result in above normal temperature through the period. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Considerable uncertainty continues for the late week/weekend period gives model-to-model and run-to-run variability. High pressure will likely provide brief dry conditions in the wake of Wednesday's system. Trends depict becoming more amplified Thursday into Friday, resulting in a warm, moist surge with scattered showers Thursday before widespread showers develop Friday with the passing of a deepening, negatively tilted and sfc cold front. Above normal temperature will remain likely through this period give pressure heights and relatively zonal flow. Dry conditions may return Saturday, with varying degrees of CAA, before another system lifts out of the inter mountain west and increases precipitation chances. The strength of CAA and materialization of precipitation will dictate the degree of cooling likely to be seen this weekend and potential for frozen precipitation during the overnight period. Timing, location and strength of this late weekend/early next week system is up for debate, thus kept ensemble averages. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions will continue over the next few hours as high-level clouds increase ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Wind gusts in excess of 20 mph will decrease later this evening as diurnal mixing ends. Ceilings will then lower tonight as southerly flow advects moisture into the region, eventually lowering to MVFR heights by early morning. Rain will gradually overspread the the terminals, beginning with ZZV shortly after midnight, then the PIT area terminals by around 09z. Included the mention of LLWS in the TAF package as a LLJ begins to nose into the area w/ ~40 kts present at 2000 ft. .Outlook... Widespread restrictions begin Tuesday night and will continue through the day until drier air moves in early Wednesday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$