844 
FXUS63 KDMX 091134
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
630 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020

.DISCUSSION.../Today through Sunday/
Issued at 435 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020

Today will be vastly different from the weekend.  A strong shortwave 
will lift out the the central/southern Plains across the region 
today while at the surface, a cold front which is currently from 
Albert Lea, MN to Webster City to Omaha, NE will make its way across 
Iowa bringing in cooler temperatures. 

Rain began lifting thorugh southern Iowa overnight and will continue 
to spread north this morning. Rainfall will be light north but 
central and southern Iowa could easily see between a half inch to 
one inch of rain. Additionally weak instability and impressive lift 
associated with a weak wave lifting across the area ahead of the 
main wave brought a couple of rumbles of thunder across northern 
Missouri, southern Iowa and into east central Iowa. There is some 
indication that a second area of instability tied to the frontal 
passage will bring an isolated rumble of thunder possibly to 
southeast Iowa but the main threat area for this second area is 
Missouri.  For now I mention slight chance for thunder over a small 
potion of southern Iowa.  

Across the north, soundings show a bit of a warm nose aloft from 
Sioux City eastward towards Algona exists with surface temps below 
freezing.  However whether we will see precip that far northwest is 
somewhat in question. The forecast right now calls for a brief 
period of a wintry mix across the northwest changing back to rain 
before the precip ends. Low clouds will also sock in today so the 
low clouds and rain and cooler temps will make for a dismal Monday. 

High pressure builds into the state tonight and Tuesday bringing 
drier conditions and some sun to the state at least for Tuesday 
morning.   Tuesday afternoon another shortwave, this one weaker than 
the one today, will push in from the northern Plains increasing 
clouds north and west and introducing some chance for rain across 
the area by late Tuesday afternoon but especially Tuesday evening. 
This system clears out Wednesday morning bringing clearing skies and 
a dry rest of the day.  Temperatures while cooler than what we have 
seen, will still be rather mild with daytime highs in the 40s and 
50s and lows mainly in the 30s. 

Beginning Thursday, model agreement and consistency are not good 
causing low confidence in the forecast.  The Euro is a little 
stronger with shortwaves passing through and a little more bullish 
on QPF as well.  Timing and targeted precip areas also vary from 
model to model.  Another shortwave is progged to pass through Iowa 
Thursday and while most of the area will be dry the Euro hints at 
northern Iowa seeing some better precip while the GFS hints at light 
precip across the south.  All models are consistent with dry 
conditions Thursday night and Friday.  Colder air will be pushing in 
along with a little stronger shortwave for Friday night and the 
weekend. Precip chances return for the weekend with rain during the 
day and snow or a rain/snow mix at night.  Again, confidence is low 
in location and timing that far out but this will be something to 
watch as we head through the week. 

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning/ 
Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2020

Periods of rain are expected through 10/00Z.  Widespread IFR with 
some LIFR cigs are forecast today and into the evening southeast 
before improving to VFR after 06Z.  ISOLD TSRA are possible INVOF 
KOTM mainly 18Z-21Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...FAB
AVIATION...FAB