112 
FXUS64 KMAF 061725
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1125 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2020

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds are
expected to increase out of the southeast this afternoon with some
gusts. Winds will decrease tonight and become more southerly by
18z Saturday. 

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2020/ 

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows an upper ridge over the wrn/central CONUS, chasing 
a trough exiting the MS Valley.  At the sfc, a cold front was 
invading the Permian Basin from the northeast, and will knock highs 
down below normal thru the weekend.  The upside will be that Sat 
should be the coldest day this forecast, yet only ~ 5F below normal 
at that.

As the ridge moves east today, West Texas and Southeast New Mexico 
will fall under SW flow aloft.  A minor disturbance is forecast to 
move thru the region Sat, but w/out much fanfare, followed by a 
stronger shortwave Sunday, which the GFS accompanies w/a weak Pac 
front/dryline, making Sun evening to be the best chance for rain 
this forecast.

Monday, temps rebound to above-normal as thicknesses increase under 
dirty ridging, followed by SW flow aloft again as a closed trough 
digs down the west coast to Baja del Norte by midweek, before 
ejecting east and dropping a cold front into the mix Thu or so.  By 
this time, long-range models are out of sync w/one another w/regards 
to the trough, w/the ECMWF outrunning the GFS.  Typically, it's the 
other way around.  W/this in mind, we've lowered the POPs in the 
extended.  Wed should be the warmest day this forecast, w/temps 
dropping back below normal behind the front by Fri afternoon. Beyond 
the extent of this forecast, both the GFS and ECMWF hint that the 
Ides of March could be the first 80F day for KMAF this year.  Stay 
tuned. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     65  43  64  48 /   0   0  10   0 
Carlsbad                       63  41  68  46 /   0   0  10   0 
Dryden                         70  48  67  49 /   0   0  20   0 
Fort Stockton                  67  46  68  50 /   0   0  10   0 
Guadalupe Pass                 56  40  64  47 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobbs                          63  40  65  44 /   0   0  20   0 
Marfa                          63  38  68  44 /   0  10   0  10 
Midland Intl Airport           66  44  64  48 /   0   0   0   0 
Odessa                         66  44  65  48 /   0   0   0   0 
Wink                           67  44  68  48 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/99