742 FXUS64 KAMA 060417 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1017 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2020 .AVIATION... 06Z Issuance...VFR conditions will persist through the period. Winds are easterly at AMA and have turned southerly already at DHT and GUY. Winds should become southerly at AMA by 08Z. Winds will remain light overnight and then ramp up after 15Z with gusts nearing 30kts. The gusts should ease back after 01Z with winds staying around 15kts for the evening. Beat && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 203 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2020/ SHORT TERM...Through Friday Afternoon... The latest upper level analysis revealed occluding low pressure over the Great Lakes with upstream ridging shifting over the Rocky Mountains and Great Basin. Northwest flow aloft will gradually become more zonal through Friday. A surface ridge will nudge into the area tonight, promoting low temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s. Although the 500mb - 250mb winds will not be very strong, there will be enough of a cross barrier component to help drive surface lee troughing and a modest pressure gradient across the Panhandles by Friday afternoon. Thus, southwest winds are expected to become breezy by late Friday morning. 500mb height rises and subsidence should keep skies mostly clear through the short term, but some high clouds may start invading towards Friday evening as 500mb winds become more southwesterly tapping into moisture over southern Baja and Mexico. Temperatures should have no trouble topping out in the mid 60s Friday given clear skies and downslope winds. A brief period of elevated fire weather conditions can't be ruled out in the northwest zones Friday afternoon. Ward LONG TERM... Going into the first half of the weekend, fair weather conditions are expected. Some gusty southwest winds Saturday afternoon as the Panhandles sits in-between a region of waning H500 heights in the SE CONUS to steep H500 height gradient across the Rockies and northern High Plains. This net flow of steady southwest winds will bring good H850-700 WAA into the Panhandles. Temperatures will respond with highs above average in the mid 60s to lower 70s, especially in the northern combined Panhandles with stronger SW surface flow. Latest 05/12Z model and numerical data shows a large upper level low pressure 2moving equatorward near the CONUS west coastline. Downstream of this feature, a secondary perturbation will eject from the Baja California towards the Panhandles Sunday into Sunday night. Localized lift ahead of the perturbation in-conjunction with decent H850-700 theta-e advection with moisture advection from both eastern Pacific and Gulf of Mexico may give the Panhandles the best chance of some light rain. The key word here is light. The forward propagation of the disturbance with a rather weak PVA at the base of the disturbance may limit precipitation across the region. If the forward propagation speeds up in the next few model runs, Oklahoma to the east of the Panhandles may see the moisture and we may miss out. One to watch as we get closer to Sunday with high temperatures continuing to remain above average. Predominately vertically stacked sfc-H500 southwest flow will continue through the remainder of the long term forecast period. The main upper level low pressure system aforementioned off the western CONUS coastline will make its way into SoCal going towards the middle of next week. Out ahead of the broad circulation, perturbations in the cyclonic flow may introduce some additional chances of precipitation again towards the end of next week. Temperatures next week will remain above average as we continue through early March. Meccariello FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire weather conditions possible for the northwest Panhandles along with elevated to near critical fire weather conditions possible for the north and northeast Panhandles. Main component to fire weather risk will be the 20 ft winds. Will be out of the southwest both Friday and Saturday at 15-20 kts Friday & 15-25 kts Saturday. RFTI values will max out at 1 on Friday and 3 on Saturday. Min RH values on Friday and Saturday will be between 17-20 percent with partly to mostly clear skies. Meccariello && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ 16/11