645 FXUS63 KICT 050538 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1138 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020 ...Updated for Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 355 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020 **Fire Weather Watch was issued for Russell and Lincoln Counties for tomorrow afternoon** Sfc high pressure continued to shift east across the region today while a broad area of cirrus sat overhead. Quiet conditions will continue through the overnight. A sfc cold front will be approaching the area from the northeast, making its way through the area by tomorrow afternoon. Post frontal conditions will create the potential for fire weather danger tomorrow. The consensus was to go with the drier dewpoints given the northwest flow and much better mixing expected across the area tomorrow. This has resulted in relative humidities dropping into the upper teens in central KS and low 20s across much of south central and southeast KS tomorrow afternoon. Gusty north-northwest winds are expected behind the cold front tomorrow. The highest gusts expected across central KS, as a tight pressure gradient moved over the area. There remains a bit of uncertainty in how dry we are really going get tomorrow. Models are varying by as much as 10% on the RH which will impact fire weather concerns. Today, the models were around 10 degrees too dry on the dewpoints early afternoon. Late afternoon they were a bit more representative but only for areas that were slightly better mixed. So...how well models are truly handling the dewpoints/RH for tomorrow remains a concern. The going forecast keeps most of the area in Very High Fire Danger tomorrow afternoon. However, it is possible portions of central KS reach Extreme Fire Danger tomorrow. A Fire Weather Watch was issued for Russel and Lincoln Counties where the highest confidence exists with afternoon RH in the upper teens and gusty winds of 15-25 kts. Breezy conditions will continue Friday and throughout the weekend as a pressure gradient tightens over the region ahead of the next shortwave to impact the Central Plains. Expect temperatures to moderate this weekend and reach the 70s across portions of central KS and mid 60s across south central and southeast KS. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Wednesday) Issued at 355 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020 Late Sunday into Monday a shortwave trough will translate across the Rockies and push a sfc low across through the Central Plains brining chances of showers and storms to the region from Sunday night through Monday. Cooler air will usher in behind the system dropping temperatures closer to seasonable norms. Another frontal system may push through the area late Tuesday into Wednesday and bring a slight chance of rain/snow to central KS and rain across south central and southeast KS. There remain plenty of model differences in this range, but for now, not looking like anything impressive. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1136 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020 VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. The biggest weather- maker will be a cold front slicing south across the region late tonight through early Thursday morning. Ahead, along, and behind the front, expect roughly 3-6 hours of low-level wind shear within 2000 ft AGL as the front passes through. Otherwise, sunny skies expected Thursday, with stout/gusty northwest winds increasing by mid-late morning and persisting through afternoon. Winds will subside by early Thursday evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 355 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020 Relative humidity in the upper teens to low 20s combined with gusty north-northwest winds of 15-25 kts will create Very High Fire Danger tomorrow across central, south central, and southeast KS. Areas of Extreme Fire Danger are possible tomorrow across Russel and Lincoln Counties where a Fire Weather Watch has been issued. Very High Fire Danger will continue for portions of central KS on Friday and central, south central, and southeast KS over the weekend as strong southerly flow and dry conditions continue across the region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 36 63 32 60 / 0 0 0 0 Hutchinson 37 60 29 60 / 0 0 0 0 Newton 38 60 30 58 / 0 0 0 0 ElDorado 36 61 31 59 / 0 0 0 0 Winfield-KWLD 35 63 32 60 / 0 0 0 0 Russell 37 60 28 64 / 0 0 0 0 Great Bend 38 60 29 64 / 0 0 0 0 Salina 38 60 28 60 / 0 0 0 0 McPherson 38 59 29 58 / 0 0 0 0 Coffeyville 35 65 32 59 / 10 0 0 0 Chanute 35 62 31 57 / 0 0 0 0 Iola 35 62 31 57 / 0 0 0 0 Parsons-KPPF 35 63 32 57 / 0 0 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch Thursday afternoon for KSZ032-033. && $$ SHORT TERM...KMB LONG TERM...KMB AVIATION...ADK FIRE WEATHER...KMB