480 FXUS64 KLCH 050155 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 755 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020 .DISCUSSION... Updated POP/wx grids earlier based on local 88Ds showing a fairly substantial lack of precip activity behind the cold front, currently situated from low pressure near Marsh Island and extending offshore. The whole range of short-term, high res guidance was in agreement with the next round of rain associated with the mid/upper-level low upstream moving into/through the area later tonight so overnight POP adjustments were fairly in line with what was already out there. Will take a look at the rest of the forecast around normal update time later. 25 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 530 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020/ AVIATION... Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to move east out of southern LA over the next 2-3 hours. Northwest winds of 15-20 knots with gusts to 30 will continue during this timeframe before beginning to decrease slightly through the rest of the evening. During that time, ceilings will lower from MVFR back to IFR and remain that way through early tomorrow morning. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020/ DISCUSSION... The frontal boundary bisecting the area has been very slowly working its way south through the day and as of this writing extends from near Cameron northeast to near Lafayette. With the exception of one cell that moved over downtown Lake Charles earlier this afternoon producing nickel size hail, the severe weather threat has remained confined to north Louisiana and northeast Texas. With that said, strong wind gusts of 30 to 40 knots has been observed along the leading edge of the cold front. Storms behind the front have remained elevated through the day and no reason to think that will change through the remainder of the evening. The current thinking is that storm intensity is likely to wane after sunset although mid and upper level moisture will remain plentiful enough to fuel continued scattered showers through the night as the trailing upper trof moves across central and northern Louisiana. Precip should clear the area by around sunrise tomorrow as drier air works in through the atmospheric column. Skies are expected to clear by late morning or early afternoon with several days of clear skies and mild temperatures expected Thursday through Saturday as high pressure builds across the region. Next chance of precipitation comes either late Sunday night or more likely Monday with the approach of the next disturbance and frontal boundary. While there is better agreement among global models on the next disturbance than there was in the previous package, there remains significant differences between individual model runs. The official forecast leans more heavily to the wet side owing to a new blend of long range models that is being demonstrated. However, confidence is slightly below average. Jones MARINE... As the cold front pushes offshore, the significantly cooler, drier air in its wake will quickly dissipate remaining marine fog over the nearshore waters and coastal lakes and bays. A moderate offshore flow will develop in the wake of the front on Thursday and small craft should exercise caution. Winds will lessen by Thursday night with light offshore flow and low seas expected to prevail Friday through Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 50 67 44 65 / 90 10 0 0 LCH 54 68 49 67 / 60 0 0 0 LFT 55 66 49 65 / 70 0 0 0 BPT 54 70 51 69 / 50 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution from 3 AM CST Thursday through Thursday afternoon for GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472- 475. && $$