396 FXUS63 KILX 032108 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 308 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 306 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2020 Except for a slight chance of rain showers later tonight north of Peoria, dry conditions look to prevail for the rest of this week. Above normal temperatures are expected as well, with highs generally in the 50s and overnight lows in the 30s through Thursday. Friday will be slightly cooler, then mild conditions return this weekend. Highs are expected to reach the 60s on Sunday. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 306 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2020 A cold frontal passage today triggered gusty westerly winds across the area, as pressure rises peaked around mid-afternoon. Wind gusts are currently reaching between 35 and 40 mph. Those strong winds are expected to de-couple around sunset, allowing surface winds to diminish into the 10 to 15 mph range early this evening, and 5-10 mph by mid-evening. Satellite images depict a shortwave across the Dakotas that is progged to slide quickly across Iowa and northern Illinois tonight. We expect to see increasing mid-high clouds toward midnight for areas north of Canton to Bloomington. Dry air in the lower levels ahead of that disturbance will limit any rain or snow showers that develop into our forecast area. We have slight chance and low chance PoPs for Galesburg to Lacon, but confidence in measurable precipitation is low. Sprinkles are more likely. After that wave passes later tonight into early Wednesday, skies will clear out, leaving the balance of the day to be mostly sunny. A brief cold pool passage in the mid-levels will help to limit high temps a few degrees below today's highs. Gusty west winds of 15 to 25 mph will mix some of those cooler temps toward the surface. However, we still expect to see high temps climb above normal, reaching the lower 50s in most areas. && .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 306 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2020 Some weak ridging aloft on Wednesday night will be quickly replaced with a longwave trough on Thursday and Thursday evening. Besides an increase in mid-high clouds, and strong westerly winds, that trough looks to pass through with limited impacts across central Illinois. Limited moisture on the southern flank of the system will keep our counties dry, with the precipitation remaining in northern Illinois and points north. A brief cool down will occur Friday in the wake of that system, as highs only reach around normal, in the mid 40s. Gusty northwest winds will make it feel a bit cooler than that, however. The weekend is shaping up to be a taste of Spring, as ridging at the surface and aloft trigger a noticeable warm-up. Abundant sunshine, and additional gusty winds, this time southerly, will help boost highs into the mid to upper 50s on Saturday and into the lower to middle 60s on Sunday. Rain chances are still on tap for early next week, as a fast moving shortwave advances from the southern Rockies across the Plains on Sunday night and Monday. Models differences are evident in timing and strength of the resultant low pressure and precipitation shield. The 12z GFS is the fastest, with precip onset Sunday night. The ECMWF shows precip onset Monday morning, while the Canadian NH holds off until Monday afternoon. Those trends did not change from the 00z runs of those models. Consensus still points toward a period of rainy conditions early next week. Possibly even some thunderstorms, depending on the track of the surface low. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1204 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2020 Gusty winds are the primary concern to aviation through the first 6 hours of the 18z TAF period. A cold front has finally pushed past the eastern terminal sites of DEC and CMI. Winds have shifted from SW to W-NW already at PIA, BMI and SPI. Winds are still SW at 15g25KT, but should veer to the W-NW in the next couple of hours. Gusts could climb into the 30-35KT range at times this afternoon. No precip occurred at the TAF sites with the FROPA, and all the mid and high clouds with the front have cleared out to the east. Winds will diminish but remain 6-9kt after sunset this evening, then back to the southwest and increase into the 10-15KT range overnight. Mid and high clouds will begin to overspread PIA and BMI, but no precip is expected to affect any of the terminal sites. All rain should remain to the north. Tomorrow morning, winds will shift back to the NW again, with some gusts of 15-20kt possible by 18z. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Shimon SHORT TERM...Shimon LONG TERM...Shimon AVIATION...Shimon