018 FXUS63 KTOP 010533 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1133 PM CST Sat Feb 29 2020 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 330 PM CST Sat Feb 29 2020 A very warm and windy afternoon shaped up with temperatures across the area in the 60s. Winds were gusting to around 35 mph from the south with sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph. Some high clouds were moving out across the area ahead of weak mid level perturbations moving into western Kansas this afternoon. Winds are expected to decrease after sunset as the pressure gradient weakens in response to the surface trough moving eastward into western Kansas this evening. The surface trough should work its way into north central Kansas Sunday morning. This will be in response to a northern stream wave moving across the northern Plains and a mid level pv anomaly ejecting out of the Rockies. Cold air advection behind the surface trough/front will not arrive until Sunday night. The 18Z NAM has backed off on precipitation in far east central Kansas Sunday afternoon, but maintained across southeast Kansas and into southwest Missouri within the moisture axis and ahead of the weak mid level trough moving across northern Oklahoma. Models develop some stratus clouds across southeast and east central Kansas. Depending on how long they last over east central Kansas will affect the highs. Currently have temps in the low to mid 60s, but could only be in the 50s if it holds well into the afternoon hours. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 330 PM CST Sat Feb 29 2020 A weak mid level disturbance along with 850mb-600mb frontogenetic forcing across southern Nebraska and northern Kansas will bring a small chance of light snow or a rain and snow mix to areas north of I-70 Monday morning. A surface high then builds into Kansas Monday night then moves off to the south on Tuesday. Models have trended further south with the upper low moving out of the southwest and across the southern Plains Wednesday. Have maintained a dry forecast with mild temperatures in the 60s. A dry northwest flow pattern continues into the end of the week with a ridge building across the plains Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1126 PM CST Sat Feb 29 2020 A strong LLJ remains in place ahead of an approaching cold front which swings through from northwest to southeast across the area by late morning into the mid afternoon. Radar sampling of upper level wind data across the region suggests that winds are probably in excess of 50kts. This is also being observed around the 1kft flight level. So, have maintained LLWS until around 12-14Z until the frontal zone works into the area. Winds veer quickly with FROPA to the northwest by late morning into the afternoon at all terminals. There may be some brief LLWS from the northwest behind the boundary, but this should be short-lived. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...53 LONG TERM...53 AVIATION...Drake