882 
FXUS63 KGRB 281130
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
530 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2020

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Saturday
Issued at 238 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2020

Cyclonic upper flow and a weak trough will bring some clouds to 
the northeastern third of the forecast area today. Cold advection
will continue and produce high temperatures around ten degrees 
below normal. 

The clouds should dissipate this evening as surface high pressure
moves into the Upper Midwest. Lows will be 10 to 15 degrees below
normal.

An upper ridge approaching the region Saturday should be accompanied
by warm advection. This should allow temperatures to rise to near
normal values. Middle and high clouds may arrive during the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday
Issued at 238 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2020

Overall a quiet period of weather expected in the extended, with 
only a couple weak, moisture starved systems look to impact the 
area. Temperatures look to be above normal through nearly the
entire period.

Saturday night into Sunday...strong warm air advection will
continue through Sunday morning with 850mb temps climbing to
between 0C and 5C. The WAA could touch off some light precip, but
plenty of dry air between 3000-15,000ft looks to limit the precip
potential greatly. It will be noticeably warmer Saturday night 
with lows mainly in the 20s. On Sunday, models continue to
advertise a cold front pushing across the area. Best upper support
remains north of Lake Superior and dry air will limit precip
chances, with only the NAM producing any measurable precip. Will
stick with a dry forecast.

Rest of the period...models showing split flow continuing into
early next week, then a potential system phasing over the Ohio 
Valley mid-week. Model consensus keeps this system far enough east
to have little to no impact on our area. We will have to contend 
with the upper trough and shortwave energy digging through the 
Great Lakes on Tuesday. But with Gulf moisture cut off well to our
south, not expecting much with this system. Another possible 
system could bring precip to the area mid-week, but plenty of 
model differences with this system.
&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 530 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2020

Good flying weather is expected through Saturday. Scattered to broken
clouds with bases of 3000 to 4500 feet are possible today near the
Michigan border and the Door Peninsula. Mostly clear skies are expected
tonight and Saturday.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......Bersch
AVIATION.......RDM