704 FXUS61 KCLE 271818 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 118 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A series of surface troughs will rotate southeast across the region through Friday night. A ridge of high pressure will build east across the area Saturday night into Sunday. A warm front will move northeast across the area Sunday night and stall near the southern shore of Lake Erie. Low pressure will track northeast along the stationary front Monday night into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Have expanded the snow accumulations across the southern CWA for the afternoon as a few lake effect bands break away from Lake Michigan. Doesnt look like more than an inch or two for a few locations across the south. Elsewhere downwind of Lake Erie the snow showers will continue but amounts through the afternoon do not appear they will be more than 1 to 3 inches unless you get under a persistent band. These areas could see up to 6 inches. We are now attempting to dig into the mesoscale features that will develop with the lake effect snow this evening through the overnight. Models are hinting that there could be an enhanced band of snow that develops during the rush hour this evening. It should be mainly over the primary snow belt area and could clip a portion of the Cleveland metro area. The greater concern for the Cleveland metro will be late tonight into Friday morning. An east to west band could be located from Cuyahoga county eastward into Geauga and Ashtabula counties. Also inland northwest PA will see some higher amounts. Not going to modify any of the headlines at this time but we will need to start thinking about advisories for the secondary snowbelt. If we end up doing this it would be for Friday morning across northern Trumbull county. More details on this over the next couple shifts. It will remain cold through Friday night. Highs in the 20s and lows in the teens to lower 20s. Wind chill should range from the teens down to the single digits. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The short term begins with lake effect snow ongoing across northeast Ohio and nwrn PA. Have increased pops across all of the OH snowbelt Friday night and then tapered through Saturday into saturday night. Models Friday night show deep enough moisture with moisture and lift through the dendritic growth zone with weak cold advection and flow off the lake as show on forecast soundings. Will have snow in the 2- 5 inch range for the overnight. Going into Saturday however, drier air and high pressure begin moving in from the west. Still however, with favorable temperature and moisture profiles at Erie, expect snow to continue into the morning from far northeast Ohio into nwrn PA Saturday night will have just chance pops for nwrn PA as dry air begins to overwhelm any lake forcing. Outside of the lake effect areas expect increasing sun on Saturday with building high pressure. Sunday a weak trough moving through the Central Plains with a surface low from KS to MN. The entire Midwest and Ohio Valley will be under warm advection and flow between the low and high pressure across the southeast will be about 50 knots at 850mb out of the GLFMX into the Ohio Valley. Expect increasing clouds through Sunday into Sunday night with chance pops overnight Sunday night increasing from the southwest. Expect a quick warming trend with highs Saturday in the upper 29s to near 30 increasing to the mid 40s most areas for Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Monday through Wednesday the warming trend that started Sunday will continue with highs reaching the 50s most places for the period. Persistent moisture moving into the area from the GLFMX and waves of low pressure moving into the area from the Southern Plains will make for a fairly wet long term period. Will have likely to categorical pops for rain Monday and Tuesday. Will have chance pops for Wednesday but that may need to be boosted to likely with an upper trough shown by the ECMWF digging into the Central Plains. && .AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/... Areas of VFR have developed across NW Ohio this afternoon. However believe this region will still see pockets of MVFR, brief IFR, in the lake effect snow showers that break away from Lake Michigan. Elsewhere occasional lake effect snow showers will also occur with MVFR or brief IFR conditions. It does appear there will be an uptick in the lake effect snow off of Lake Erie this evening which will have impacts on KERI and potentially KCLE. KCLE may see its greatest burst of snow around 12Z Friday morning and then again Friday afternoon in the wake of a surface trough. All locations across the eastern half of northern Ohio into NW PA may have an extended period of moderate to light snow with the trough on Friday. Gusty westerly winds will continue through the evening then gradually decrease. However there will continue to be some blowing snow into Friday across NE OH into NW PA. .OUTLOOK...Non-VFR mainly in northeast OH and northwest PA, due to lake effect snow through Saturday. Non-VFR returns Sunday night into Monday with rain showers. && .MARINE... Will adjust headlines to drop the small craft advisory and just go with the gale warning and low water at the start of the forecast. Winds already around 30 knots and should increase into the mid 30s for the day today. Surface low over New England this morning with high pressure centered over TX driving strong wnw winds on the lake. Strong wnw flow across Lake Erie will persist through tonight as the low moves slowly north. Northwest flow will diminish Friday night to around 20 knots ending the gale on the east half as the low moves to the Maritimes and weakens. With northwest flow to 20 to 25 knots however waves will remain 6 to 10 feet so expect small craft headlines to continue until Saturday night and Sunday when winds diminish to 10 knots or less and back to the ssw. Southwest flow will increase to around 15 knots again on Monday as a cold front approaches the lake from the west. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for LEZ142>145-162>165. Low Water Advisory until midnight EST tonight for LEZ142>144- 162>164. Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for LEZ146>149-166>169. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MM NEAR TERM...MM SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...MM MARINE...TK