137 FXUS64 KTSA 261625 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1025 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2020 .DISCUSSION... Still a few reports of flurries from the lower cloud deck covering much of eastern OK and western AR this morning with the passage of a subtle wave in northwest flow. Indications are that steepening mid level lapse rates will develop this afternoon could result in at least isolated showers across northwest AR and perhaps far northeast OK through the afternoon, with a mix of precip types possible and primarily snow in the higher elevations of northwest AR. Some brief accumulation is possible in these areas but the odds of anything impactful look very slim. Updated forecast to mention a bit more widespread potential for sprinkles or flurries this morning and a broader area of rain/snow mix during the afternoon. Rest of forecast is trending well at this time. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 519 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2020/ AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. MVFR/IFR cigs across southeast OK into western AR will gradually improve by this afternoon, with areas of light rain/light snow tapering off this morning. Breezy northwesterly winds will persist into the afternoon before diminishing. PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 305 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2020/ DISCUSSION... A wintry mix of cold light rain and light snow continues across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas early this morning. This activity will diminish over the next several hours as the responsible mid-level trof shifts off to the east-southeast. However, will keep low pops across southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas for the morning hours to cover any residual precipitation. As of right now, the heaviest snow is occurring across portions of northwest Arkansas. This is where some areas could see a dusting of snow to upwards of one-half inch of snow accumulation through this morning. Have added some low end pops for this afternoon across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as a weak secondary mid-level shortwave sweeps into the area from the northwest. This activity is expected to fall in the form of rain. Today is expected to be the coldest day of the forecast period with high temperatures well below normal as cold air continues to filter into the region from the north. However, a noticeable warm up in on tap for rest of the work week right through weekend and even into early next week. Fire weather concerns will ramp up Saturday into Sunday with the unseasonably warm temperatures in place and a gusty southerly wind developing. The chances of showers and thunderstorms pick up Sunday night and continue through at least Tuesday as a surface boundary sags into the area Monday and stalls near the Red River. Heavy rain becomes a concern Monday night into Tuesday with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible during this time in the vicinity of the frontal boundary with an active southwesterly flow aloft becoming established. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 43 24 56 33 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 44 25 54 34 / 20 0 0 0 MLC 44 23 55 34 / 10 0 0 0 BVO 41 20 54 30 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 39 20 50 31 / 20 0 0 10 BYV 39 21 49 31 / 20 0 0 10 MKO 42 23 54 31 / 10 0 0 0 MIO 41 22 51 29 / 20 0 0 10 F10 44 24 57 33 / 10 0 0 0 HHW 44 26 54 34 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14